Financial Distress Prediction Using Logistic Regression with Corporate Governance Measure

應用公司治理指標于羅吉斯回歸財務危機預警模型之研究

陳信宏(Hsin-Hung Chen)

《管理科學與統計決策》 4卷1期 (2007/04) Pp. 8-17

https://doi.org/10.6704/JMSSD.2007.4.1.8

摘要

正確的公司財務危機預警對企業之利害關係人是非常重要的，但過去有部份的文獻顯示，羅吉斯迴歸在財務危機預警的應用上正確性不足。因此本研究的目的在探討羅吉斯迴歸模型加入公司治理指標後，對企業之財務危機預警是否具有提高正確性之效果。研究樣本選取自2005年1月至2006年6月面臨財務危機之台灣上市公司。本研究結果發現，加入公司治理變數後，模型整體區別正確率由89.9%提昇至95.7%。

關鍵字

公司治理 ； 財務危機 ； 羅吉斯迴歸

並列摘要

Accurate financial distress prediction models are of critical importance to various corporate stakeholders. However, some studies have indicated that the accuracy of logistic regression for predicting corporate financial distress is lacking. This study aims to investigate whether the inclusion of the corporate governance measure in a logistic regression prediction model will generate better results than that based on traditional financial ratios alone. Empirical results showed that 89.9% of observations were classified correctly by the model based on traditional financial ratios alone. And the correct rate of classification increased to 95.7% when the model additionally included the corporate governance measure.

並列關鍵字

Corporate governance, ； financial distress ； Logistic regression

參考文獻

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