世界主要證券市場財務預測制度及相關規範之探究

我國現行財務預測制度旨在促使資訊充分公開、保障投資大眾權益，以推動證券市場健全發展，可謂用心良苦，立意甚佳。經濟社會發展與時俱進，制度亦宜預應調整。茲將政策方向及本研究建議措施，簡結如下：（一）為綜合考量治理效率，符合國際作法及實務需要，行政院金融監督管理委員會爰修正財務預測制度改採自願公開原則，刻正修訂相關配合措施。（二）本研究仍提出相關配套措施建議，期能加強市場治理機制，並以政府治理相輔相成。 1.在編製者方面，重點除鼓勵公司自願性公開財務預測，並應重視非財務性資訊揭露，以區分和提昇資訊品質。另可考量鼓勵客觀、中立之財務分析師提供財測資訊。 2.在核閱者方面，重點為加強驗證功能的可靠性。這可以由鼓勵產業公會和中大型會計師事務所建置產業資訊庫，以利產業相關資訊、基本假設之妥適。 3.在財測資訊評鑑方面： (1)建立財測資訊品質評鑑指標，予評比後，針對優良者予以獎勵，並以簡單明瞭方式公諸投資大眾。 (2)為督促各公開發行公司檢討財務預測之編製制，並讓閱表者瞭解公司公開財務預測之紀錄，公司應於財務預測增加揭露最近一次財務預測經主管機關處以糾正或經臺灣證券交易所股份有限公司、財團法人中華民國證券櫃檯買賣中心處記缺失之原因及其改善情況。

關鍵字

證券市場；各國財務預測制度；自願性公開財務預測；更新正財務預測

並列摘要

In order to develop a sound securities market, Taiwan administers the financial forecast system to promote sufficient information disclosure and protect investors' rights. Since the rapid change on economy and society, the current financial forecast system needs adjustment to conform modern trends. Based on above situation, the following conclusions and suggestions are summarized: 1. To consider the efficient management and accord global standards, the financial forecast system was modified to inure to voluntary-released principle by the Financial Supervisory Commission, Executive Yuan. Provisions relevant to this subject will be amended. 2. To foster the function of market mechanism and cooperate with government's administration, additional advices is recommended in the following areas: (1)In compiling the financial forecasts, encourage enterprises to announce financial forecasts voluntarily. Disclosing non-financial information is also important to assort and upgrade the quality of financial forecasts. Besides, financial forecast offered by disinterested financial analysts is another alternative. (2)In authorizing the financial forecasts, the credibility of verification must be strengthened. Developing a database for industrial organizations through industrial union and accountancy firms subserves to reach adequacy and propriety. (3)In evaluating the financial forecasts: (a)Establish a financial forecast information quality rating system. Approve of well performers after rating and reveal it to investors in distinct text. (b)To impel public offering companies reviewing financial forecast system and be sure the readers understand the content of financial forecast. These companies must disclose the latest financial forecast which corrected by supervisor or under penalty of default by Taiwan Stock Exchange/GreTai Securities Market including dissatisfaction with the financial forecast and improvement.