結合多空間氣流模型與感染傳輸模型預測室內空間環境氣懸微粒之感染風險

Prediction of airborne infection risk in indoor space by integrated multi-zone airflow and infection transmission modeling

林俊杰(Chun-Chieh Lin) ； 喻新(Hsin Yu)

《國立宜蘭大學工程學刊》 11期 (2015/12) Pp. 47-61

https://doi.org/10.6176/BCE.2015.11.14

摘要

世界上氣懸感染疾病案例不斷增加，且致死率有變高趨勢。為了能有效控制氣懸感染疾病，有學者利用Well-Riley感染傳輸模型結合計算流體動力學預測氣懸感染風險，但計算流體動力學不易進行長時間及多空間之汙染物濃度分析與易感者吸入劑量分析，有文獻建議使用多空間氣流模型進行與感染傳輸模型結合進行感染風險評估。本文使用二氧化碳為汙染物指標，實測研究室與教室的二氧化碳濃度，並以多空間氣流模型CONTAM進行濃度模擬，進而探討CONTAM結合感染傳輸模型預測感染風險之可行性，實驗結果得出模擬與實際量測濃度具強烈相關，表示CONTAM進行濃度模擬有其準確性。再利用感染傳輸模型進行分析結果得出感染機率在研究室與教室分別為0.24%-0.26%與0.041%-0.042%，預測感染人數分別為1.30-1.31人與0.83-0.85 人。

關鍵字

感染風險 ； 二氧化碳

並列摘要

The case of airborne infection diseases and the mortality increased continually in the world. In order to control the airborne infection transmission, the integrated model combined computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and Wells-Riley equation to predict the risk of airborne infection is conducted. But the CFD method is difficult to analysis multi-zone space during a long time and the inhaled dose of susceptible persons. The integrated model combined the multi-zone airflow model and the Wells-Riley equation to predict the airborne infection risk is suggested by literature. The CO_2 is used to the maker in this study. The CO_2 concentration of office and classroom is measured and is simulated by CONTAM. The integrated model combined multi-zone airflow model and the Wells-Riley equation is derived. The results indicate that experimented data and simulate data and have the high correlation. The predicted infection probability of office and classroom is 0.24% to 0.26% and 0.041% and 0.042% separately by Wells-Riley infection equation. The basic reproductive number of office and classroom is 1.30 to 1.31 and 0.83 to 0.85 separately.

並列關鍵字

Wells-Riley ； CONTAM ； infection risk ； carbon dioxide