北韓戰爭邊緣政策的形成與國際環境

The Formation of North Korea's Brinkmanship and the International Environment

李明峻(Ming-Juinn Li)

《台灣國際研究季刊》 8卷1期 (2012/03) Pp. 177-193

https://doi.org/10.29800/TLSQ.201203.0008

摘要

近十餘年來，北韓利用美國集中精力對付伊拉克之際，從重新啟動核電廠到試射飛彈，並以威脅美國韓國和日本來進行要挾，其主要目的就是意圖藉此取得國際援助，以解決國內日益緊張的政治經濟問題，並與其簽訂互不侵犯條約，以解除美國因稱其為「邪惡軸心」而產生的潛在威脅。但北韓原本即無發動戰爭的意圖，美國的目標是東北亞和朝鮮半島的和平與穩定，而中國既想討好美國又要拉攏北韓，日本和韓國等周邊國家則不願北韓崩潰帶來沈重的財政負擔甚至難民問題。就此而言，各國對國際政治的處理日益圓熟，不理性的表象之後顯然有著極理性的邏輯與計算。本文旨在從新現實主義的角度，探討北韓戰爭邊緣政策的形成背景，以及其對東北亞國際環境產生的影響，進而探討週邊國家對其政策的因應之道。

關鍵字

北韓 ； 戰爭邊緣政策 ； 新現實主義 ； 東北亞 ； 美日同盟

並列摘要

Over the last decade, North Korea restarted their nuclear power stations, tested their missiles and threatened the United States, South Korea and Japan to get international aid to solve their own serious political and economic problems. Also, to relive the potential threat because of being called the ”axis of evil,” North Korea threatened those countries to sign a non-aggression pact with them. North Korea originally had no intention to initiate wars, and the United States' goal is the peace and stability of northeast Asia and Korean Peninsula. However, China did not only want to be ingratiated with the United States but also want to be aligned with North Korea. Japan, South Korea and other nearby countries did not want to face the heavy financial burden and even refugee problem if North Korea crashes. Seeing how sophisticated and skillful these countries were when dealing with international politic issues, there has been obviously extremely rational logic and evaluation underneath the irrational surface. This paper aims at the research on the background of North Korea's brinkmanship formation and the influences from the changes of international situations in northeast Asia from Neorealist point of view.

並列關鍵字

North Korea ； brinkmanship ； Neorealism

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