WTO and China's Capital Market Development

世貿組織與中國資本市場之發展

傅冶天(Yee-Tien (Ted) Fu)

《Taiwanese Journal of WTO Studies》 10期 (2008/08) Pp. 39-59

https://doi.org/10.30392/TJWTOS.200808_(10).0003

摘要

中國製造業發展迅速，有世界工廠之譽。經濟發展的另二基底：消費與投資也隨之開展。消費活動繫乎於效用之追求，以此刻而言，廣大之初富與新富階層多汲汲於投資以蓄積明日之消費實力。因而此刻之經濟發展重點之一實繫乎於資本市場之建立及投資環境之營造。
中國正朝向超越德國，成為僅次於美國、曰本的世界第三大經濟體挺進。由於製造業蓬勃，再加上投資熱錢湧入，外匯存底迭創新高。中國央行為了因應市場需要，增加貨幣供應量。然而發行政府債券，去除多餘流動性，殊屬必要。中國股市屢創新高，股海中良莠並存難免有欠缺經驗之小股民遭損失影響生計，解決之道為三管齊下：其一、設立投資人保護協會，加強投資教育；其二、開發股票指數期貨及選擇權，鼓勵用眼光獲利，如預期股票指數在某時將走低則可賣空指數期貨並獲利，如此可避免盲目追高；其三、建立銀行互保制度(FDIC)，提供保障收益存款商品，鼓勵欠缺投資經驗及風險承受度低者選擇。
中國人民幣正緩漲中，預計外匯存底將持續快速增加。外匯存底之投資多為美國之政府公債，殊屬穩當。於通膨存在之時，美國財政部抗通膨債券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, TIPS)亦為上選。抗通膨債券，是由美國財政部發行的國債，屬於國庫債券之一種，每年分發利息兩次，年期十年，其本金及票息均依據消費物價指數(CPI)確定的通膨率隨時進行調整。外匯存底之本質乃出口商委託政府代管之外幣資產，不宜大規模進行風險高之投資。
中國國有銀行存在不良貸款的問題則可透過發行信用違約交換(Credit Default Swap)尋求防範並求解。CDS是一種可供信用提供者（放款人或公司債持有人）規避信用風險的契約，是常見的信用衍生性金融商品，交易主體包含違約風險保護買方(protection buyer)主要為銀行，及違約風險保護賣方(protection seller)｡買方（銀行）因持有風險敏感性資產如債券或放款部位，希望將此違約風險轉嫁給賣方，故定期支付固定成本來獲得違約風險的保護，相對地，賣方雖固定獲得買方定期給付的收益外，亦同時負有義務當違約事件(Credit Event)發生時，將給付買方（銀行）因市場波動所造成的損失。如此則有違約風險保護賣方監督，避免了銀行不當放款的可能，也避免了銀行壞帳全民買單的不平。一但制度建立進入良性循環，則銀行不吝於放款給亟需資金創業之中小型企業，俾益民生經濟。
世貿組織要求中國於二○○六年底前開於金融市場。迄今已見相當成效。此外為了更有效率地運用外匯存底，中國成立了國家投資公司，管理二千億美元之資產，進行以取得單位數報酬率為目標的穩健投資。

關鍵字

中國資本市場 ； 銀行互保制度 ； 世界貿易組織

並列摘要

As reported by Wall Street Journal on October 23, 2006, ”China's commitments to the World Trade Organization required it to start permitting foreign companies into more areas of the financial industry, beginning in September 2006, including insurers and banks. Insurance and banking have been opened step-by-step before and after China joined the WTO in 2001.” We study issues and strategies of the capital market development in China, from one asset category to another, in the post-WTO era. ”The Chinese economy has maintained a robust trend of high growth, low inflation and low interest rates, but the skyrocketing prices of financial assets reveal the contradiction between the accumulation of wealth and the supply of financial assets,” said the country manager of Standard & Poor's in China in 2007. The inflation had surged since late 2007 and had peaked at 8.7% in February 2008, with 90% of the inflation came from food price surge. And, at the same time, China has to face a reduction on export-driven growth due to the slowdown of US economy caused by sub-prime mortgage crisis. Due to the lack of adequate development of the bond market, Chinese Treasury had not been ready to issue inflation protected securities to soothe discomfort of seeing negative real interest rate. A sound financial infrastructure with a bond market will help signal a benchmark rate on return, which can be used to contrast the returns from stock investment and its risk-taking. In addition, bond market would help expand direct financing and strengthen capital market stability.
China's foreign-exchange regulator is, as of April 9, 2008, drafting rules on foreign-exchange management that will further relax controls on China's Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program (QFII), which was initialized in 2003 to allow foreign companies to invest in China's domestic capital markets.

並列關鍵字

China's Capital Markets ； excess liquidity ； WTO ； sterilization

參考文獻

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