川普主義、美陸貿易戰及其對全球經濟影響

Trumpism, Sino-US Trade War and its Implications for Global Economy

劉德海(To-hai Liou)

《Taiwanese Journal of WTO Studies》 31期 (2019/03) Pp. 65-94

https://doi.org/10.30392/TJWTOS.201903_(31).0002

摘要

無資料

關鍵字

美國 ； 川普 ； 中國 ； 貿易戰 ； 日本 ； 台灣 ； 韓國 ； 越南 ； 電動車 ； 5G ； 歐洲聯盟

並列摘要

With the rise of Donald Trump as U.S. President, his tariff war against China as well as tensions between the U.S. and other major trading partners have contributed to uncertainty that is hurting business and consumer sentiment, so are international supply chains. For now at least, the escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have not stopped Apple from deepening its manufacturing footprint in China, the company's most significant production base. Nevertheless, according to Goldman Sachs report, Taiwan and Malaysia will suffer the most in the near term if a U.S.-China purchasing agreement goes through, while South Korea and Japan also have much to lose. Peaceful economic coexistence between the U.S. and China is the only way to prevent costly trade wars. However, economic interests of other economies might be compromised by the emergence of a Sino-US condominium or G2 in the global economy, Japan and the EU in particular. The salient example is the auto sector landscape which has been reshaped as China veers toward an ultra-competitive electric future and Sino-US collaboration in electric vehicles ( EVs) . As a result, Tesla and BYD have emerged as global leaders in the EVs market, while traditional auto champions such as German Volkswagen and Japanese Toyota are relegated to hardware providers. In addition, the US and China are also dominating in the artificial intelligence (AI) and the 5G race as well. Both Japan and the EU are lagging behind the two superpowers. However, the US and China might get emotional and believe no deal is better than a bad deal. If that is the case, then a new Cold War based on technology and trade would be inevitable.

並列關鍵字

China ； the US ； Trade War ； Japan ； Taiwan ； Korea ； Vietnam ； European Union ； 5G ； Electric vehicles

參考文獻

「社論：正視全球貿易成長失速警訊」，經濟日報，2019 年4 月7日，https://udn.com/news/story/7338/3741093?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub7338_pulldownmenu

「對陸再出手！川普要求立即取消美農產品所有關稅」，中時電子報，2019 年3 月2 日，https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20190302001069-260408

「李本京:失算--川普中斷美朝會談」，大華網路報，2019 年4 月6日，http://www.cntimes.info/docDetail.jsp?coluid=110&docid=104799462&page=1

“Xi hails progress achieved in BRI cooperation,” The Global Times, April 27, 2019, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1147760.shtml

“China urges US, Canada to correct mistake on the extradition of Huawei CFO,” The Global Times, January 22, 2019, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1136676.shtml