機車HC排放之迴歸與時間序列分析－以南投縣為例

HC Emission Models from Motorcycles Using Regression and Time-Series Techniques-Nantou County

呂珊茹(San-Ju Lu) ； 林啓文(Chi-Wen Lin) ； 洪士賢(Shih-Hsien Hung) ； 林國顯(Kuo-Ssian Lin)

《科學與工程技術期刊》 2卷2期 (2006/06) Pp. 29-35

https://doi.org/10.7117/JSET.200606.0029

摘要

台灣地區汽機車排放HC、CO及NO(下標 x)，分別佔各行業空氣污染總排放量約49%、83%及33%，又由於台灣都會區中機車於交通工具中之佔有率(35-52%)頗高，因此成為主要污染之排放來源。南投縣為台灣重要之觀光地區，為了解南投縣機車定檢制度執行成效與機車之污染物排放特性，並提出機車排放濃度再降低之空間與改善方案，遂針對南投縣之機車定檢資料進行機車排放污染物之基本特性分析、迴歸分析及時間序列分析。研究結果顯示：南投縣使用中之機車有趨於老舊之特性，而所獲致之迴歸分析式與時間序列模式則可提供HC排放濃度預估之用，及作為行政院環保署制定機車排放污染物管制策略之參考。

關鍵字

機車定檢 ； 碳氫化合物 ； 迴歸分析 ； 時間序列模式

並列摘要

Due to the high ownership rate for motorcycles (35-52%) in urban areas, motor vehicles have become a significant source of air pollution in Taiwan, contributing 49% of the emissions of HC, 83% of the emissions of CO, and 33% of the emissions of NO(subscript x). Of these, motorcycles contribute 64% of the HC, 38% of the CO, and 3% of the NO(subscript x). The objective of this study was to examine the emission characteristics of motorcycles and the effectiveness of the motorcycle Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) program conducted in Nantou County by using regression analysis and time-series analysis. The results indicate that the ownership rate for older motorcycles increases yearly, and these vehicles play a significant role in contributing to HC emissions. These statistical findings and proposed models can also provide Nantou County and the EPA of Taiwan with useful information for formulating better environmental strategies for managing motorcycles effectively.

並列關鍵字

inspection/maintenance program ； hydrocarbon ； regression analysis ； time-series models