美國次級房貸事件對全球經濟與金融體系發展之衝擊與影響

Enquiry into Impacts and Influences of U.S. Sub-prime Loan Crisis on Global Economy and Financial System Development

趙永祥(Yuang-Shiang Chao)

《東亞論壇》 461期 (2008/09) Pp. 1-27

https://doi.org/10.29705/EAR.200809.0001

摘要

美國次級房貸風暴對全球經濟之影響已從金融面擴散至實質面，迄今仍餘波盪漾、未見平息，對於全球經濟與金融體系發展是否會有明顯的負面效應，其後續效應值得關注。本研究將延續上一期「美國次級房貸風暴事件對兩岸經濟與金融發展影響之研究」進行後續研究，將其對全球經濟與金融體系所可能產生之衝擊與影響，做一深入探討。至於，對於台灣經濟與金融體系發展所產生之影響，根據標準普爾、惠譽與穆迪三大國際信評公司之研究，指出國內金融機構受到美國次級房貸實際影響並不大。次級房貸本屬美國境內問題，卻造成全球股市大地震，金融體系的動盪，迫使各國央行出面救火？何謂「次級房貸」(sub-prime mortgage)？「美國二房」爲何對美國整體金融體系發展能有如此之大的影響力？美國次級房貸風暴所衍生的問題對全球經濟與金融體系發展將會有何重大影響？未來全球經濟該如何走下去？有何因應措施去解決？美國次級房貸風暴給當今執政當局的啟示爲何？本文將就上述議題進行深入之剖析。

關鍵字

次級房貸風暴 ； 全球經濟 ； 金融危機 ； 全球金融體系

並列摘要

The global financial crisis sparked by the U.S. sub-prime loan problem is now posing a serious threat to global financial markets, with its severity intensifying as widening losses and a liquidity crunch push some financial institutions to the brink of failure. The U.S. seems to be falling victim to a debt spiral, in which market turmoil is aggravating deterioration in the real economy. While Taiwan's situation is not as critical as the situations menacing the U.S. and Europe, because Taiwan's corporations and financial institutions face not serious bank losses. Up to now, the turbulence in U.S. subprime mortgaged market has spread into a global liquidity crisis. In addition to low interest rates in the past several years, the securitization of mortgage into the so-called collateralized-debt obligations is another reason of the sub-prime crisis deepening. The impact of sub-prime crisis has spread from financial sector to real sector. Furthermore, the crisis is not over yet and its impact on economic outlook is still on the way.
The author has observed that the current financial crisis is not simply a matter of bad debt but also a liquidity crunch stemming from the collapse of the very structure of the highly leveraged markets. This has similarly been pointed out recently by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its Global Financial Stability Report and by the Financial Stability Forum in its Report of the Financial Stability Forum on Enhancing Market and Institutional Resilience. The biggest factor behind the rapid increase in financial institutions' losses is the incessant growth of write-downs, caused not only by direct damage from sub-prime products but also by sharp price declines in a wide range of other financial products related to sub-prime loans. This report examines just how extensive the problem could impact and influence the global economy and financial operation mechanism and furthermore to raise some potential solutions.

並列關鍵字

U.S. Sub-prime Loan Crisis ； Global Economy ； Financial Crisis ； Financial System Development

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