中國發展航空母艦述評：意圖、能力與地緣政治

自2011年8月「瓦良格」（Varyag）試航開始，中國海軍顯現出朝向藍海發展的企圖，但同時也引發西太平洋周邊國家對中國海權擴張之憂心。儘管中國宣稱發展航母是「大國地位」的必然結果，並表示將以「永不稱霸」與「和平發展」為前提，確保國家海洋領土與海洋權益。但近來中國海軍遠洋能力的擴張，仍難平息周邊國家對「中國威脅」之疑慮。本文以為，觀察中國發展航空母艦之重點應在中國何時、如何全力發展其建造航空母艦的意圖？其所發展的航空母艦究竟能到達什麼樣的軍事能力？以及其對區域與全球地緣政治有何影響？在諸多可能存於爭辯的同時，從其意圖、能力與地緣政治的多角度思考下，或能解開此一謎底。

關鍵字

中國；航空母艦；瓦良格；地緣政治

並列摘要

Since the first sailing of Varyag in August, 2011, China Navy has revealed the ambition of moving forward to the blue-water. This move arouses the worries of the expansion of China's sea-power from the Western-Pacific countries. Though China claimed it was the inevitable result to develop the aircraft carrier as a Superpower, and ensured its territory of sea and sea-right under the premises of ”never being the hegemony” and of ”peaceful development,” it has been hard for the East-Asian countries to cast the doubts away when facing the ”China threats” due to the expansion of China's Naval far-water capability in recent years. The main point of observing the development of Chinese aircraft carrier should be put on when and how China will disclose its intention to build aircraft carrier. We also need to know to what extent the development of aircraft carrier can help China to reach the military capability, and what its impact on the regional geopolitics.