大陸「十二五規劃」與大陸台商的商機及風險評估

台灣與大陸的產業政策，對於兩岸經貿關係的發展具有一定的影響，兩岸經濟關係在兩岸簽署「兩岸經濟合作協議」（ECFA）後，已有制度性的穩定安排。本文要關注的問題是：大陸「十二五規劃」（2011-2015年）中戰略性新興產業與兩岸經濟合作的規劃，台商在其中有哪些產業合作的商機以及經營風險。本研究發現：（一）「十二五規劃」導引大陸從「世界工廠」走向「世界市場」，使得台商服務業在兩岸經貿中具發展商機；（二）「十二五規劃」擴大內需市場，台商可將大陸廣大市場（尤其是二線城市）做為建立自有品牌的練兵場；（三）「十二五規劃」可使兩岸新興產業對接，台商可整合兩岸產業鏈以促進產業發展與商機；（四）大陸台商仍需面對與評估來自全球經貿、兩岸政經互動、及大陸總體經濟社會情勢變遷等方面的經營風險與挑戰。

關鍵字

十二五規劃；台商；商機；風險評估

並列摘要

Cross-straits economic relations have been institutionally arranged since ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) became effective in 2010. This paper aims to answer the following question: what kind of industrial cooperation opportunities and management risk do Taiwanese businessmen have to take under the strategic emergent industries plans and cross-straits economic cooperation arrangement of China's ”Twelfth Five-Year Plan” (2011-2015)? The research results show that, first, ”Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will lead Mainland China from ”world factory” to ”world market”; Taiwanese businessmen of service industries thus have business opportunities in cross-straits cooperation. Second, ”Twelfth Five-Year Plan” aims to expand China's domestic market demand. Taiwanese businessmen could explore China's huge market, especially in the second-tier cities. Third, ”Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will help to connect industries between Taiwan and China, so Taiwanese businessmen could integrate cross-straits industrial chains in order to promote industrial development and business opportunities. However, Taiwanese businessmen still need to face and assess the risks and challenges from global economy, cross-straits economics and politics interactions, and macro economic and social change in Mainland China.