台灣茶業產銷決策分析與模擬

Decision Analysis and Simulation on Supply and Demand Chains of Taiwan Tea

鍾健平(Chien-Ping Chung) ； 李靜芳(Ching-Fang Lee) ； 張嘉芬(Chia-Feng Chang) ； 羅秀日(Hsiu-Jih Lo)

《明道學術論壇》 9卷1期 (2014/03) Pp. 39-55

摘要

近年來，由於台灣茶產業結構改變，造成產銷市場供需不平衡。本研究以擅長處理高階、多環、非線性之系統動力學為研究方法，建構台灣茶業產銷系統動態、模型，進一步結合反應曲面法進行模擬分析。研究結果顯示，人員薪資提高，使得茶商、茶農生產成本增加，在利潤考量下，會增加進口茶數量。然而，增加國內自產茶量時，才能使得供需平衡，整體利潤相對較高，此時，進口茶數量會降低。

關鍵字

台灣茶 ； 產銷 ； 系統動力學 ； 反應曲面法

並列摘要

With the changes in the development of the tea industry in Taiwan, the tea industry's business structure adjustment and balancing of production and sales should be mutually concerned. This study identified the factors affecting the supply and demand chains of granulated tea, and further established the operational model of the overall system of the granulated tea industry supply and demand for simulation. System dynamic was used as the research method. Besides, response surface methodology was also employed for business strategies analysis in this study. This study found that when the full payment is at a high level, under the profit concern, it will lead to changes in the quantity of imports. However, the production rate in Taiwan is at the high level, the competitiveness of the production and marketing of the tea industry can thus be enhanced.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan tea ； Production and Distribution ； System dynamics ； Response surface methodology