中小企業財務預測分析－以銀行移送信保之授信為例

The Analysis of Financial Prediction-With the Example of Crediting Transferred by Banks for Credit Guarantee

周惠珍(Hui-Jen Chou) ； 劉美芳(Mei-Fun Liu) ； 李國賓(Kuo-Bin Lee)

《全球管理與經濟》 5卷2期 (2009/12) Pp. 62-78

https://doi.org/10.6565/JGME.2009.5(2).5

摘要

The small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) have characteristics of flexible adjustment and access to the markets and contributions to the economic growth in Taiwan. The parent body of samples was the credit loan application data by SME that a commercial bank transferred to the authorities for credit guarantees. The samples of NT dollar credit cases together with the financial situation of applicant enterprises that the researcher had obtained were total 308 accounts including default accounts and regular accounts. On the basis of the financial statement data for three years before the application, we assess whether the data could be the basis of loans for the bank that received the loan application The research also analyzed the significance of the financial situation for recent three years before the ratification of loans between regular repaying interest accounts and default and collapsed accounts.This research used Logistic Regression model to test the empirical results. It found that the five variables of the two-year current ratio, previous two-year total asset turnover ratio, previous three-year total asset turnover ratio, previous loan-asset ratio and credit ratio had significant differences in the current situation of operations. The forecast accuracy of the results of forecast of classification through the regression model in the research on the closedowns of enterprises was 50.7% whereas the forecast accuracy on the normal case was 97.9%. The overall accuracy was 87.7%.Therefore, credit officers can use the model together with conditions of the applicant company to forecast in the shortest period the probability of collapse case or normal case in consideration of a loan.

關鍵字

中小企業 ； 中小企業信用保證基金 ； 授信比 ； 總資產週轉率 ； 款貨資產比

並列摘要

The small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) have characteristics of flexible adjustment and access to the markets and contributions to the economic growth in Taiwan. The parent body of samples was the credit loan application data by SME that a commercial bank transferred to the authorities for credit guarantees. The samples of NT dollar credit cases together with the financial situation of applicant enterprises that the researcher had obtained were total 308 accounts including default accounts and regular accounts. On the basis of the financial statement data for three years before the application, we assess whether the data could be the basis of loans for the bank that received the loan application The research also analyzed the significance of the financial situation for recent three years before the ratification of loans between regular repaying interest accounts and default and collapsed accounts.This research used Logistic Regression model to test the empirical results. It found that the five variables of the two-year current ratio, previous two-year total asset turnover ratio, previous three-year total asset turnover ratio, previous loan-asset ratio and credit ratio had significant differences in the current situation of operations. The forecast accuracy of the results of forecast of classification through the regression model in the research on the closedowns of enterprises was 50.7% whereas the forecast accuracy on the normal case was 97.9%. The overall accuracy was 87.7%.Therefore, credit officers can use the model together with conditions of the applicant company to forecast in the shortest period the probability of collapse case or normal case in consideration of a loan.

並列關鍵字

SME credit guarantee fund ； Risk control ； Logistic regression model