資訊及通訊傳播業信用風險模型之實證研究

An Empirical Study of Credit Risk Models on Information and Communication Industry

余惠芳(Hui-Fun Yu) ； 蔡麗蘭(Li-Lan Tsai)

《全球管理與經濟》 8卷1期 (2012/06) Pp. 111-126

https://doi.org/10.6565/JGME.2012.8(1).6

摘要

本文主要係運用統計科學方法，建置資訊及通訊傳播業信用風險模型（Credit Risk Models），儘可能於公司尚未發生信用風險前，提前預測公司可能發生財務風險之機率，達到事前預警作用。實證分析上，嘗試使用28個財務比率變數與4項非財務比率變數，分析2000～2011年臺灣公開發行公司之資訊及通訊傳播業，找出影響公司績效之顯著變數。實證結果發現，預測資訊及通訊傳播業公司經營績效之主要指標在財務結構、償債能力，經營能力、獲利能力、現金流量與公司治理指標；適當降低流動比率、總資產報酬率ROA與內部保留比率，以因應資產變現損失之安全邊際；儘早檢視營業費用與利息費用是否過高，降低銷售成本，以提高獲利能力；提高自有資金比率、淨值週轉率、現金流量允當率、稅前淨利率、稅後淨利率、盡早設置獨立董監事能增強公司治理能力。因此，本文之實證價值與管理意涵為資訊及通訊傳播業儘早檢視營業費用與利息費用、設置獨立董監事，可提高公司獲利能力與公司治理能力。

關鍵字

NCC產業 ； 會計資訊 ； 公司治理 ； 信用風險模型

並列摘要

This research used the statistical methods to construct a logistic credit risk models on information and communication industry. The credit risk model predicted in advance the probability of financial risk attacking information and communication companies. We picked out the significant variables as key indicators of corporate performance from the 32 variables of Taiwanese companies, including 28 financial ratios and 4 non-financial ratios variables. Findings, the key performance indicators were the financial structure, the solvency, the operating performance, the profitability, the cash flow and the corporate governance. Empirical results suggested the companies reducing the liquidity ratio, the ROA and the retention ratio to meet the margin of safety for assets realization loss. It could improve the profitability by reducing the operating expenses, the interest expense and the selling cost. To increase the own funds ratio, the equity turnover, the cash flow adequacy ratio, the ROS, the after tax margin, and establishment of independent directors and supervisors, all could enhance the corporate governance mechanism. Implications, if the information and communication companies could be reduced the operating expenses and the interest expense, and establishment of independent directors and supervisors, then those would enhance the profitability and corporate governance mechanism.

並列關鍵字

NCC Industry ； Accounting Information ； Corporate Governance ； Credit Risk Models