原油價格對消費影響之研究

The Study of the Effect of Oil Prices on Consumption

田瑞駒(Jui-Chu Tien) ； 張志雄(Chih Hsiung Chang) ； 田光佑(Kuang-Yu Tien)

《全球管理與經濟》 13卷2期 (2017/12) Pp. 111-117

https://doi.org/10.6565/JGME.2017.12(2).7

摘要

2000年以來國際油價大幅上漲期間，CPI（Consumer Price Index，消費者物價指數,以下簡稱CPI）漲幅則明顯縮小。為瞭解國際油價衝擊對台灣消費者物價的影響程度，本研究之方法是先蒐集2000年1月至2016年12月之布蘭特原油價格和CPI，利用敘述統計分析兩者的中央離差趨勢估計和相關性。進一步採用迴歸分析，欲探討因變數(CPI)如何地被一個自變數(布蘭特原油價格)影響。研究結果發現，浮動油價機制前，布蘭特原油價格對CPI是具有高度的相關性。雖然，浮動油價機制後，布蘭特原油價格對CPI具有相關性，但是相關性不高，因此我們判斷啟動浮動油價機制後原油價格對於CPI只有低度的相關。

關鍵字

CPI ； 布蘭特原油 ； 迴歸分析

並列摘要

During the period since the international oil price rose sharply in 2000, the CPI (Consumer Price Index, here referred to as CPI) rose significantly. In order to understand the impact of international oil price shocks on the consumer prices in Taiwan, the method of this study is to collect the Brent crude oil prices and CPI from January 2000 to December 2016, and use the narrative statistics to analyze the central dispersion trend Estimates and correlations. Further regression analysis is used to explore how the dependent variable (CPI) is affected by an independent variable (Brent crude oil price). The results show that before the floating oil price mechanism, the Brent crude oil price is highly correlated with the CPI. Although, after the floating oil price mechanism, the Brent crude oil price has a correlation with the CPI, but the correlation is not high. So we judge that the crude oil price has low correlation with the CPI after starting the floating oil price mechanism.

並列關鍵字

CPI ； Brent Crude Oil ； Regression Analysis