台灣電子業公司財務決策對經營危機影響之研究

本文目的主要係找出影響電子業公司績效的顯著變數，建立財務預警模型(Financial Early-warning Model)，提出適當的財務決策(Financial Decision)，提高公司績效，降低公司發生財務困境的可能性，達到事前預警與風險管理(Risk Management)之效。實證分析上，針對2008年發生全球金融危機至2015年，台灣上市櫃電子業合計40個公司樣本，採兩階段迴歸法，選取變數採用K-S檢定、M-U檢定、Pearson相關檢定、建立多元迴歸預警模型，結果顯示解釋變數具有解釋能力。實證結果顯示，影響公司績效的變數指標在財務結構、經營能力與獲利能力。影響公司績效的財務變數有前一年的稅前淨利率、業外收支率，前二年的固定資產周轉率、現金流量允當比率，前三年的長期資金適合率、現金流量允當比率。實證結果通過本文的研究假說，H1:電子業經理人的融資決策(償還負債)與公司經營危機有顯著的負向影響；H2:電子業經理人的投資決策(固定資產)與公司經營危機有顯著的負向影響。實證價值與管理含意，在公司發生財務困境之前一年至前三年，複迴歸模型二的預測準確率分別為95%、90%、90%，表示研究結果具有效性，可提供經理人、投資人等投資選股策略參考，並提供財務學術領域新增文獻之參考；未來金融機構針對企業授信之審核，可新增預測模型提供檢測之風險治理(Risk Governance)參考，降低金融機構授信呆帳風險，與企業授信之信用風險，進而提高資本適足率。

關鍵字

財務決策；公司績效；預警模型；風險管理；風險治理

並列摘要

This paper seeks to significant variables that affect the performance of electronic companies, establish the financial early warning model, and put forward appropriate financial decision, improve corporate performance and reduce the probability of financial difficulties to achieve early warning and risk management. Empirical analysis, in view of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2015, electronics industy which publish in Taiwan's stock exchange market and OTC total of 40 companies. Mining two-stage regression method, the selection of variables using K-S, M-U, and Pearson test, the establishment of multivariate regression model, the results show that explanatory variables have explanatory power. The empirical results show that the variables affecting corporate performance are in financial structure, operating ability and profitability. The financial variables affecting the company's performance are pre-tax net interest rate, the external income and expenditure ratio, fixed assets turnover rate, the cash flow adequacy ratio, and long-term capital suitability rate. Empirical results the hypothesis was accepted. (1)The managers of the financing decision (repayment of debt) and the company's business crisis has a significant negative impact, (2) The managers' investment decision (fixed assets) and corporate management crisis have a significant negative impact. Implication, in the previous one to three years before the company's financial distress, the prediction accuracy rate of the multivaruate regression model was 95%, 90% and 90% respectively, which indicated that the results of the model were effective, and provided references for the new literature in financial academic field, the future financial institutions to the enterprise credit audit.

並列關鍵字

Financial Decision ； Corporate Performance ； Warning model ； Risk Management

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台灣電子業公司財務決策對經營危機影響之研究

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