CEO雙元性財務決策對不動產業財務危機影響之研究：中國上市公司之實證

The Impact of CEO Duality on Financial Crisis of Real Estate: Evidence from China

余惠芳(Hui-Fun Yu) ； 張海燕(Hai-Yen Chang) ； 王華璟(Hua-Jing Wang)

《全球管理與經濟》 17卷1期 (2021/06) Pp. 1-16

https://doi.org/10.6565/JGME.202106_17(1).0001

摘要

本文係以中國不動產業上市公司為研究對象，探討CEO雙元性之財務決策對公司營運績效的影響，建立不動產業財務預警模型，以達事前預警與風險管理之效，進而提高公司營運績效。實證資料，以2003年至2019年，計74家上市公司為樣本，7,104個觀測值進行Logistic迴歸分析。實證結果顯示，顯著影響公司發生財務危機主要變數有長期資金適足率、利息保障倍數、固定資產週轉率、每股盈餘（EPS）、總資產報酬率、每股現金流量、雙元性（董事長兼任總經理）等7個變數。研究結果對公司經理人的建議如下：公司財務危機前之財務策略：1.前三年，CEO雙元性與財務危機呈顯著負向影響（支持管家理論），宜降低利息保障倍數（增加融資，則利息費用增加－融資決策）、增加長期資金適足率（增加長期借款－融資決策）及固定資產週轉率（增加銷貨收入－投資決策），改善公司財務結構、增強償債及經營能力；2.前二年，應增加每股現金流量，償還短中期借款（融資決策），以增強公司現金流量能力；3.前一年，CEO雙元性與財務危機呈顯著正向影響（支持代理理論），宜聘請專業經理人，降低總資產報酬率（償還短中期借款－融資決策），增加長期資金適足率（增加長期借款），則利息保障倍數增加，當稅後淨利增加，買回庫藏股，降低普通股流通在外股數（股利政策），則EPS增加，以增強公司獲利與償債能力，降低公司發生財務危機的可能性。本文貢獻，係首次嘗試利用Logistic迴歸分析，探討中國不動產業，找出CEO雙元性之財務決策與公司營運績效的關鍵因素，提供經營者、投資人之財務決策與選股策略之參考，增補既有文獻之不足。

關鍵字

CEO雙元性 ； 財務決策 ； 風險管理

並列摘要

This article is mainly based on the research of listed companies in the real estate industry in Mainland China, discussing the impact of CEO's dual financial decision-making on the company's operating performance, establishing a real estate industry financial early warning model to achieve the effects of pre-warning and risk management, thereby improving company operations Performance. In terms of empirical analysis, a logistic regression analysis was performed on a sample of 74 listed companies and 7,104 observations from 2003 to 2019. The empirical results show that the main variables that affect the company's financial crisis include long-term fund adequacy ratio, interest coverage multiple, fixed asset turnover rate, earnings per share (EPS), return on total assets, cash flow per share, chairman and general manager, etc. 7 variables. The results of the research suggest that managers should adopt financial strategies before the company's financial crisis: 1. In the first three years, CEO duality and financial crisis have a significant negative impact (supporting housekeeping theory), and interest protection multiples should be lowered (increasing financing will lead to interest expenses) Increase-financing decision), increase long-term fund adequacy ratio (increase long-term borrowing-financing decision) and fixed asset turnover rate (increase sales revenue-investment decision), improve the company's financial structure, enhance debt repayment and operating capabilities; 2. In the second year, the cash flow per share should be increased and short-term and medium-term borrowings should be repaid (financing decision) to enhance the company's cash flow capacity; 3. In the previous year, CEO duality and financial crisis showed a significant positive impact (support agency theory), It is advisable to hire professional managers to reduce the return on total assets (repaying short-term and medium-term borrowings-financing decisions), and increase the long-term fund adequacy ratio (increase long-term borrowings), and the interest protection multiple will increase. When the net profit after tax increases, buy back treasury stocks. Reducing the number of common stocks outstanding (dividend policy) will increase the EPS to enhance the company's profitability and solvency and reduce the possibility of a financial crisis in the company. The contribution of this article is the first attempt to use Logistic regression analysis to find out the key factors of CEO duality financial decision-making and company operating performance by studying specific industries in China's real estate industry, and provide financial decision-making and stock selection strategies for managers and investors. The reference to the existing literature is to supplement the deficiencies in the existing literature.

並列關鍵字

CEO duality ； financial decision ； risk management ； China