應用灰預測於維修備料預測之研究：以印表機維修公司為例

Applying Grey Forecast Approach to Predict the Maintenance Material Preparation: A Printer Maintenance Company as an Example

吳玫瑩(Mei-Ying Wu) ； 許秀月(Shiu-Yueh Hsu)

《中華管理學報》 11卷3期 (2010/09) Pp. 1-16

https://doi.org/10.30053/CHJM.201009.0001

摘要

由於目前的印表機常有不確定性的零件本身問題、消費者操作不當所導致的故障或意外事件，而造成逆向物流回收之維修需求。故本研究以某大印表機維修商為研究對象，藉由調查結果證實本研究所採用的維修紀錄具普遍性及代表性。本研究主要目的期望透過資料分析來發展印表機逆向回收需求預測模式，以作為未來相關廠商發展維修零件備料庫存系統之參考依據。經由研究結果顯示，在零件備料需求量歷史資料不足之限制的情況下，在保固期內及保固期外可選擇灰預測或廻歸預測法。本研究主要的貢獻在於提供印表機維修商更趨近實際維修零件備料的需求預測，以降低庫存成本提高服務品質，並可做為相關廠商發展維修零件備料庫存系統之參考依據。

關鍵字

逆向物流 ； 灰預測 ； 廻歸預測

並列摘要

At present the printer has the uncertainty components itself breakdown, the consumer not to operate, when causes the breakdown or the accident create reverse logistics service demands and so on breakdown. This research take some big printer service business as the object of study, and because of the survey result confirmed this research institute uses the service record has the universality and the representation. The findings showed that the components prepare materials limit in the demand historic information insufficiency situation, in guarantees against damage in the time and guarantees against damage outside the time to be possible to choose the grey forecast or the regression forecast law. This research contribution is providing the printer service business to draw close the actual service components to prepare materials the demand predict that reduces the inventory cost enhancement service quality, and may do for the related manufacturer development service components prepares materials of reference the inventory system.

並列關鍵字

Reverse Logistics ； Grey Forecast ； Regression Forecast