兩岸經濟競合與挑戰之分析

The Two Sides across the Taiwan Strait Economy Competes Gathers Analysis of with the Challenge

趙永祥

《華人前瞻研究》 6卷2期 (2010/11) Pp. 115-140

https://doi.org/10.6428/JCTF.201011.0115

摘要

金融海嘯過後各個國家為挽救自己國家之經濟，無不利用其財政政策及貨幣政策，以擴大消費或紓困企業。中國在龐大的政府力量下也大量對市場供應資金，企圖透過擴大消費及公共建設填補工業產能，此舉能否奏效仍待時間考驗。台灣此時與中國建立經濟合作關係，其風險是正式開放大量資金進入中國，一起承擔中國面臨風險。近年來，中國大陸經濟快速崛起，其國際地位及影響力大為提升，改變區域、世界的經貿版圖，尤其在國際分工的趨勢之下，已成為世界最具潛力的生產地與市場。此一發展趨勢，台灣必須作好預防的工作，尤其是必須積極的思考兩岸分工的佈局，來強化兩岸在國際分工的地位，投資風險的有效管理，才能促使台灣經濟穩定的成長；長遠來看，台灣勢必得和中國合作才能有效帶動台灣的經濟成長，但是短期經濟循環的風險，更是台灣的企業應該更慎重考慮的。中國資本市場的發展畢竟尚未成熟，需有一經濟合作的架構來規範遊戲規則，以減低台商經營的風險與成本。台商期望兩岸政府擱置政治爭議全力發展經濟，台商認為全球化經貿架構下的兩岸經濟分工隱然形成。展望未來，許多現有貿易投資爭議能否順利解決，將會影響實際效應的發揮。本研究將從政策與經濟發展趨勢的觀點探討兩岸經濟競合與兩岸未來發展趨勢並提出具體性建議，建議政府應掌握兩岸開放新局面，機大商業發展機會；儘速訂定推動陸資企業來台投資策略，成立兩岸產業合作工作小組，進而創造ECFA簽署後兩岸獲取雙贏之局勢。

關鍵字

金融海嘯 ； ECFA ； 兩岸金融 ； 全球金融風暴 ； 兩岸經濟競合 ； 兩岸經濟挑戰

並列摘要

Since the global financial crisis happened in August, 2008, the economic depression and financial corporate governance spread to most countries, in the meanwhile, the interaction of both sides has seldom made concrete progress since 2000. After both sides participated in WTO, two sides have to face the challenges containing the differences of politics and economy, the confronting position of the system of government and the intense exchange of economy. Most importantly, how to build up the interactive channel of politics and economy is an urgent topic for both sides. The studying theory of this thesis is use the method of mutual demonstration from the vision of politics, economics, and historical method. Because the politics, economics, and political economy are related to the concepts of government, nation, and market, this thesis use the integrating vision to discuss the topic about how Taiwan businessmen invest in Mainland China The basis of the thesis is depended on free market theory and national economy theory, assisting with the dependent theory and new liberalism focusing on global trend and the economical relationship of cross-strait relies on each other more and more. As time goes by, the concept and ideas of both sides will integrate gradually. Therefore, both sides are trying to set up the duct of communication by legislation. Therefore, if both sides want to make benefits, they should restart to negotiate, based on ”Mini-Three Links” to expand the way of communication.
Up to now, the dependence of Taiwan's companies on both side governments is rising and falling. What Taiwan's corporations want is to have air traffic or navigation proceeded as soon as possible for saving the cost. 5. Taiwan's corporations hope both governments can put the political problem aside and do their best to develop economy. There are some suggestions: the government of both sides should establish a peaceful and interactive environment of politics and economy, and Taiwan's corporation should think about the strategy about global overall arrangement and how to use the advantageous resources in Taiwan. For the future, the key point of Taiwan's success is the cooperation between the government and corporations in Taiwan and to take the strategy of rooting in Taiwan and mapping out an overall planning and management in the world. Eventually, building up a harmonious cross-Strait relationship as quickly as possible is the best profit to Taiwan's corporations and the people of both sides.

並列關鍵字

Financial Disaster ； Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement ； Cross-strait Financial Development ； Global Financial Crisis Cross-strait Economic Cooperation ； Cross-strait Economic Challenge