台灣淨出口與所得利率物價匯率關聯性之研究

Correlation between Net Exports and Income Interest Rates PriceIndexes and Exchange Rates in Taiwan

馮惠珊(Hui-Shan Feng) ； 余惠芳(Hui-Fun Yu) ； 高偉娟(Wei-Chuan Kao)

《華人前瞻研究》 8卷1期 (2012/05) Pp. 63-76

https://doi.org/10.6428/JCTF.201205.0064

摘要

台灣地區市場狹小，出口是創造有效需求與提高經濟成長之動力，近年來受到亞洲金融風暴及全球金融海嘯（Financial Tsunami）影響，出口擴張已不如70年代的快速。本文主要係利用出口探討台灣對外貿易與匯率的影響、找出影響兩岸貿易的重要變數與關聯性，達到提高經濟發展與成長的目標。由於經濟成長的提升與GDP、物價、利率、匯率、淨出口等之相互關聯性，目前尚未有學者探討，因此本文首次嘗試以簡單Keynes模型、IS-LM理論、BP對外均衡理論為分析基礎，利用統計方法SPSS實證檢定台灣近30年（1981－2009年）的GDP、淨出口、物價、利率和匯率之相互關聯性。本文經實證分析獲得下述結果：1.台灣的對外貿易依存度（即進出口貿易總額除以GDP），於2000年開始首次突破80%，2004年更突破100%，2008年突破123%；對外貿易依存度越高，顯示我國經濟成長與發展對外貿易依賴性越大。2.在簡單Keynes模型中，淨出口增加，所得也增加，同理淨出口減少，所得也減少。3.在IS-LM理論中，淨出口增加，所得增加，利率上升。但因利率上升，可能導致本國私人投資支出減少，IS曲線往左下移，使得均衡利率下降。此理論與本文之台灣實證結果是一致的。4.在AD-AS理論古典學派中，淨出口增加，會引起物價上漲，同理淨出口減少會引起物價下跌，但無論淨出口增加或減少所得均不變，維持充分就業水準。5.在AD-AS理論Keynes學派中，淨出口變化與物價及所得皆呈同方向變動。

關鍵字

淨出口 ； IS-LM模型 ； AD-AS模型 ； BP理論

並列摘要

This paper discusses macroeconomics aspects of such relationship as the topic using simple Keynes model, IS-LM model and BP curve as analytical bases. It also utilizes statistical software, SPSS, to test the relationship among GDP, net exports, price index, interest and exchange rates in the past 30 years in Taiwan (1981 - 2009). Hope this paper can serve as a valuable reference for academic and industry.In this paper, the following results have been obtained by empirical analysis: 1. Taiwan's dependence on foreign trade (i.e. total imports and exports divided by GDP), is first time exceeded 80% in 2000 and in advance exceeded 100% in 2004, as well as exceeded 123% in 2008. The higher dependence on foreign trade means that the dependence of economic growth and development on the foreign trade is greater in Taiwan. 2. In simple Keynes model, as net exports increase, income will increase also. As well as, as net exports decrease, income will also decrease. 3. In IS-LM theory, as net exports increase, income will increase and interest rates will rise. Due to rising interest rates may lead to their private investment spending, the IS curve to the left down, making the equilibrium interest rate decline. This theory is consistent with the empirical results of this paper. 4. In classical school of the AD-AS theory, the increase in net exports will cause price increases, empathy net exports will cause the drop in prices, but both net exports increase or decrease from the same, to maintain full employment level. 5. In Keynes School of the AD-AS theory, the net export changes in prices and income will be change in the same direction.

並列關鍵字

Net Exports ； IS-LM rnodel ； AD-AS rnodel ； BP curve