兩岸服貿協議之構思與新挑戰：產業經濟分析

The Idea and New Challenges of Cross-strait Service Trade Agreement: An Industry Economic Analysis

黃智輝(Chi-Huei Huang)

《華人前瞻研究》 10卷1期 (2014/05) Pp. 113-124

摘要

兩岸服務貿易協議兩會於2013年6月21日在上海簽署，簽署後大陸開放的80項均為WTOPlus。根據初步計算，若包括完成正在協商中的自由貿易協定，韓國自由貿易比重將提高到78.1%，日本82.2%，新加坡85.5%。台灣若無法參與區域經濟整合體系，根據經濟部評估：韓國與歐盟及美國的簽署經濟整合協議，對台出口衝擊高達5千億台幣。中日韓完成三邊經濟整合協議：九成台灣出口將受衝擊，台灣實質GDP將減少1,300億台幣。影響我於加入RCEP後，出口值估計可增加134.2億美元。若未加入RCEP，出口值少63億美元（約占我國貿易總額2%）。未加入TPP得衝擊較小，出口減少4.8億美元。因此以國家戰略高度來看，在維護國家未來競爭力，台灣不能離開融入區域經濟整合，避免被邊緣化。

關鍵字

區域經濟整合 ； 跨太平洋經濟戰略夥伴協議 ； 區域性綜合經濟夥伴協議 ； 服務貿易協議 ； 經貿協議架構

並列摘要

The two organizations of Cross-strait signed Agreement on Services Trade on June 21, 2013 in Shanghai, after the signing with the Mainland China and opening 80 items are WTO Plus. According to MOEA estimated, if completed negotiation around Asia, including the Free Trade Agreement, Korea market trade access will increase to 78.1%, Japan 82.2% , Singapore 85.5% . If Taiwan can not participate in the regional economic integration, the impact of export will up to 500 billion Taiwan Dollars. Japan and South Korea complete the multilateral agreement: Taiwan's exports affected will be reduced by 130 billion Taiwan real GDP dollars. After Taiwan joined RCEP, the export estimated increase US$ 13.42 billion. If Taiwan do not join RCEP, the export will reduce of US $ 6.3 billion. So that from the national strategic perspective, for keeping maintain Taiwan's future competitiveness, we must keep the regional economic integration withiout leaving to avoid being marginalized.

並列關鍵字

Regional Economic Integration ； The Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement ； Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement ； Agreement on Trade Services ； Economic and Trade Framework Agreement