從現狀、敵意螺旋看兩岸關係的發展

Viewing the Development of Cross-Strait Relations from the Status Quo and Hostile Spiral

晏揚清(Ying-Chin Yuan) ； 張志雄(Chih-Hsiung Chang)

《華人前瞻研究》 17卷1期 (2021/05) Pp. 29-45

摘要

近代人們之所以要建立國家，首要目的就是要保障組成國家之人們其生命財產的安全，也就是說，謀求每個國民的生命、財產安全應該是每一個政府的首要目標。從這個角度來檢視海峽兩岸關係的發展，我們可以發現近年來兩岸關係的發展似乎有點像兩輛失控的車在同一個軌道上相向而行，如果沒有剎車，結果會是如何應該是很容易想像的。因此，如何避免這樣的結局，保護二千三百萬人的安全，應該是政府首要的工作。但是，很不幸的，帶頭衝向失控的局面卻是政府，而部分民眾則在一邊鼓譟。造成兩岸今天這樣的情況，其實可以從事國際關係研究中的「安全困境」、「敵意螺旋」的現象來觀察，因此本文擬就這兩個現象來討論兩岸關係的發展，惟在討論這兩個現象前不得不先探討其起始點─「現狀」的問題。

關鍵字

兩岸關係 ； 敵意螺旋 ； 現狀

並列摘要

In modern times, the fundamental purpose of people establishing a country is to ensure the safety of the lives and property of the people who make up the country. Therefore, seeking the safety of the lives and property of every citizen should be the primary goal of every government. Looking at the development of cross-strait relations from this perspective, we can find that the development of cross-strait relations in recent years seems to be a bit like two cars out of control driving each other on the same track. If there is no brake, the result should be easy to imagine. Therefore, how to avoid such an outcome and protect the safety of 23 million people should be the government's first priority. However, unfortunately, it is the government who is taking the lead in the out-of-control situation, and some people are clamoring. What caused the situation across the Taiwan Strait today can actually be observed by engaging in the phenomenon of ＂security dilemma＂ and ＂hostile spiral＂ in international relations research. Therefore, this article intends to discuss the development of cross-strait relations based on these two phenomena, but before discussing these two phenomena, we have to discuss their starting point-the ＂status quo.＂

並列關鍵字

Cross-Strait Relations ； Hostile Spiral ； Status Quo