台灣的失業率對國際貿易競爭力影響之研究

國際貿易競爭力是衡量一個國家進、出口貿易與經濟成長的重要指標。而台灣的經濟發展又對貿易依賴程度甚高，故國際貿易競爭力的消長對台灣來說則顯得更為重要的。同時，國際貿易也是世界各國衡量國際間各項競爭力的重要指標之一。另，失業率的升、降也會影響到一國的經濟成長，因此，本研究旨在探討台灣的失業率對國際貿易競爭力的影響。實證結果發現：台灣的失業率變動會負向且顯著地影響國際貿易競爭力。這個結論除了可供政府與企業部門在經營管理上的參考外，還可藉由失業率的升、降來檢視台灣在國際貿易競爭力上的消長。

關鍵字

自我迴歸整合移動平均；競爭力；失業率；國際貿易；時間序列；轉移函數

並列摘要

International trade competitiveness is a main measure of a country's import and export trade and an important indicator of its economic growth. Because Taiwan’s economic development depends on international trade much heavily, it is so important that Taiwan government tries to maintain or enhance the island’s modest international trade competitiveness. Meanwhile, for the other countries, the performance of a country's international trade is also an important indicator to measure its international competitiveness. In addition, the fluctuations of a country’s unemployment rate would also affect the economic growth of a country. Therefore, the present study is to investigate the impact of Taiwan's unemployment rate for international trade competitiveness. The empirical results show that the increase in Taiwan's unemployment rate will negatively and significantly affect international trade competitiveness. In conclusion, the findings not only provide the government and the corporate sectors as a reference on management practices, but also illustrate how the changes of Taiwan's unemployment rate influence its international tr ade competitiveness.