選舉危機與選民政黨傾向－以謝長廷線民事件為例

本研究透過集群分析，觀察不同集群選民，對候選人危機情境判斷、危機責任歸因以及候選人所採形象修復策略之效果，是否有所差異。本研究發現在線民事件中，多數深綠及中間選民，認爲謝長廷處在行爲情境，而泛藍選民多認爲謝長廷處在同意情境。謝長廷以「否認」策略爲主要反應策略，對深綠及中間選民具有一定的形象修復效果。至於危機責任之歸因，深綠選民以「過去表現」爲主、深藍選民以「證據真實度」、中間選民則是看事件對社會的「損害程度」，來判斷危機責任。

關鍵字

選舉危機；選民政黨傾向；危機情境；形象修復；危機責任歸因

並列摘要

Using cluster analysis, this study attempts to validate whether there exists significant difference among clusters of constituencies in their judgments on crisis situations, their attributions to responsibilities of crisis, and the effects of image repairing strategies. It is found that during the crisis of being accused of as an informer of the authority, most pan green supporters and politically independent voters considered that Hsieh Chang-Ting was in a commission situation, whereas pan blue voters considered him as in an agreement situation. Hsieh's using denial as his core response strategy produced significant effects in repairing his images among pan greens and politically independents. Different bases of judgments are held to attribute responsibilities of crisis by constituencies from different sides of the political spectrum: pan greens based on ”past performance”, pan-blue voters on ”authenticity of evidence” and political independents on ”degree of damage caused”.