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Probabilistic Model for Long-term Deformation of Subgrade Soil in Upgrading-speed Railway Lines

並列摘要


This paper presents a new empirical model for predicting the long-term deformation of subgrade soils induced by cyclic sinusoidal load and cyclic train load. Laboratory cyclic triaxial tests were conducted on compacted specimens to investigate the long-term deformation behavior of railway subgrade soils classified as CL according to Unified Soil Classification System. Multivariate regression analyses were performed on the test data and the probabilistic model for predicting long-term deformation behavior under both loading conditions was proposed. The equivalent sinusoidal load for the train load is transformed by multiplying an amplitude reduction coefficient of 0.55. The new empirical model correlates the long-term deformation with influencing factors including the relative compaction of subgrade soils, number of cyclic loading, cyclic deviatoric stress and confining stress. Another feature of the new model is that the long-term deformation is predicted with lower bound and upper bound through a probabilistic model. Three possible probabilistic applications of the new model are illustrated with example cases.

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