Using Grey Theory to Predict Shanghai Unit GDP Energy Consumption

Weisi Zhang ； Hongyan Li

《Current Research Journal of Economic Theory》 6卷1期 (2014/03) Pp. 7-10

並列摘要

Energy consumption per unit of GDP, reflecting the environmental costs of economic development, pointed out the direction for urban construction, environmental protection is our common responsibility. In real life, the impact of energy consumption per unit of GDP is complex and uncertain factors, according to a series of known and unknown information, we can predict the energy consumption per unit of GDP as a grey system, so you can use the grey system theory. Grey model requires only a limited amount of data to estimate the unknown system behavior. In this study, first of all, by using the known data we established GM (1, 1) model, Verhulst model and the DGM (2, 1) model predictive analysis. The results show that GM (1, 1) model’s prediction accuracy is higher than the prediction accuracy of Verhulst model and DGM (2, 1) model. Then, Shanghai next unit GDP energy consumption is predicted by GM (1, 1) model.

並列關鍵字

GM (1, 1) model ； grey model ； unit GDP energy consumption