企業創新特質、財務預測與盈餘管理之關聯

The Relationships among Innovation Characteristics, Financial Forecast and Earnings Management

劉正田(Jen-Ten Liu) ； 黃麗樺(Li-Hua Huang) ； 林修葳(W. Hsiou-Wei Lin)

《會計學報》 2卷1期 (2009/11) Pp. 1-28

https://doi.org/10.29731/SJA.200911.0001

摘要

本文探討我國企業創新投資、財務預測與盈餘管理之關係。研發投資過程有三種不確定性：技術不確定性、商業不確定性、經濟不確定性，因此，企業之盈餘預測誤差可能較大。當盈餘預測之實際數與預測數差異過高時，企業必需負擔商譽損失與行政處罰。因此，企業可能作預測更新或盈餘管理以降低預測誤差。本文即是檢驗高研發廠商之營運不確定與預測誤差之情形，並測試作第二次預測修正及期後預測修正之企業，其盈餘管理之可能情形如何。本文以我國上市櫃公司為測試樣本，研究發現有：第一、高研發創新之公司，營收與營業活動現金流量之變異性較高。第二、高研發創新之公司，初次盈餘預測誤差率較高，預測之更新次數較多，盈餘管理程度亦較高。第三、高研發創新者，以及初次盈餘預測誤差率較高者，盈餘管理程度較高；而作第二次盈餘預測更新者、期後期間作盈餘預測更新者，以及預測更新次數較多者，盈餘管理程度較低。

關鍵字

創新 ； 研究發展 ； 財務預測 ； 財務預測更新 ； 盈餘管理

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationships among R&D investment; financial forecast; and earnings management in Taiwan. Regarding the R&D investment, there are three kinds of uncertainties: technical uncertainty; commercial uncertainty; and economic uncertainty. The uncertainties influence the accuracy of financial forecast. When there is substantial difference between the actual earnings and earnings forecast, the reputation of firm would be impaired as well as the administrative penalty would be imposed. Under this circumstance, the firms might perform the financial forecast renewal or earning management to mitigate the forecast errors. Our paper is to examine the relationship between the uncertainties of the high R&D industries and their financial forecast errors. We evaluate the earnings management of the high R&D firms undertook a second financial forecast renewal and post-fiscal period financial forecast renewal. The target samples are the Taiwanese listed firms with financial data. Our empirical study results indicate: 1). that high R&D firms demonstrate higher volatility in terms of revenue and cash flow from the operating activities; 2). the volatility increases the probability of initial errors in the earnings forecasts, the frequency of the revised financial forecasts along with higher earnings management; and 3). the high R&D firms with more initial errors in the earnings forecasts also presented higher earnings management. However, the firms conducted a second financial forecast renewal, post-fiscal period financial forecast renewal, and more than two financial forecast renewals, exhibited lower earnings management.

並列關鍵字

Innovation ； Research and development (R&D) ； Financial forecast ； Financial forecast renewal ； Earnings management

參考文獻

方智強、吳安妮(1997)。台灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測之實證研究。會計評論。30，253-269。

行政院國家科學委員會，2007，科學技術統計要覽

行政院金融監督管理委員會證券期貨局，2007，公開發行公司公開財務預測資訊處理準則。（http://www.sfb.gov.tw/intro_index.asp）

李建然(2000)。影響台灣上市公司自願性盈餘預測頻率之研究。會計評論。32，49-79。

吳安妮(1991)。經理人員自願性揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素。會計評論。25，1-24。