“通貨膨脹率”與“失業率”兩惡之權衡抉擇

The Discretionary Choice of Two Evils of "Inflation Rate" and "Unemployment Rate"

王春源(Chun-Yuan Wang)

《南亞學報》 28期 (2008/12) Pp. 153-165

https://doi.org/10.6989/JN.200812.0153

摘要

本文要提出一個理論模型，來分析失業率與通貨膨脹率兩害相權取其輕，孰輕孰重之成立條件，並以中國大陸在1985-2007的23年期間與台灣在1978-2007的30年期間，實際發生之失業率與物價變動率資料為依據，來加以檢驗。本文主要貢獻為：提出一個一般性理論，來分析失業率與通貨膨脹率兩害相權取其輕之取捨條件，並主張「失業率對社會之害，更甚於通貨膨脹率，因後者雖使人民所得變薄，但前者則使人民變窮與面臨死亡。」，據而推導此論點成立之條件，且輔以台海兩岸實際資料，檢核兩岸在哪些年符合上述主張之條件。

關鍵字

失業率 ； 通貨膨脹率 ； 社會效用

並列摘要

This paper proposes a theoretical model to analyze the relative hurt of the deteriorating social utility effect of unemployment rate vs. inflation rate and to derive their corresponding conditions. We utilize the actual data of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate of Mainland China in the period of 1985-2007 and Taiwan Area in the period of 1978-2007 to examine its empirical relevance.We advocate that the deterioration effect of the unemployment rate outweighs the deterioration effect of the inflation rate because the latter just deflates people's nominal income, but the former seriously pushes the people to the poverty and to the death. We derive the corresponding condition for the above argument, and examine which years of the actual data of Mainland China and Taiwan Area were mapping to our argument.

並列關鍵字

Unemployment rate ； Inflation rate ； Social utility