以網格集群最大概似法建立建築物易損性曲線

Using Grid-based Clustering Maximum Likelihood Estimate in Establishing Building Fragility Curves

謝孟勳(Meng-Hsun Hsieh) ； 李秉乾(Bing-Jean Lee)

《中華防災學刊》 6卷2期 (2014/08) Pp. 221-237

摘要

本研究以921地震後調查之完整建築物損害紀錄發展16類建築物之易損性曲線，提出網格集群最大概似法（簡稱網格集群法）建立結合網格化集群分析程序與最大概似估計法之建築物易損性曲線分析理論。這個新方法能夠提供低偏差之致災資料以降低傳統行政單元法的資料分散性。網格集群法具有三種分析模式，包括二項分布型、多項分布型（方法一）及共對數標準差多項分布型（方法二）。研究結果顯示：(1)可合理地表達建築物之易損性特徵，適於廣域的建築物損害資料發展建築物易損性曲線；(2)方法二相較其它模式對於易損性特徵具有較佳的描述能力，不同損害分級間共對數標準差假定是建立經驗易損性曲線較佳的選擇；(3)即使僅有二種損害分級的921地震損害紀錄，易損性曲線仍有可接受的預測結果。上述結果證明本研究發展之易損性曲線能夠合理地應用於建築物災損評估及地震風險評估。

關鍵字

網格集群最大概似法 ； 建築物易損性曲線 ； 經驗分析法 ； 921地震

並列摘要

In this study, the typological building fragility curves are developed base on the building damage records collected after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan. A new clustering analysis, so-called grid-based clustering maximum likelihood estimate, in combination with a grid-based cluster analysis procedure and with a novel maximum likelihood estimate, is proposed to derive fragility curves for 16 building typologies in Taiwan. This new grid-based method generates lower-deviation vulnerability data for reducing the dispersion of datasets than does the traditional district-based method. The proposed gridbased method has three analysis models, including binomial distribution, multinomial distribution (Method 1), and multinomial distribution with a common log-standard deviation (Method 2). The results of the grid-based method show that: (1) the fragility curves can reasonably expressed vulnerability of buildings thus applicable to the development of building fragility curves for wide-regional damage records; (2) Method 2 provides a more reasonable vulnerability of building thus the common log-standard deviation is a better choice to derive the empirical fragility curves; (3) the fragility curves have acceptable prediction performance even though only two levels of damage in the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake. Above results demonstrate that the developed fragility curves can reasonably be implemented for estimating earthquake loss and assessing seismic risk in the future.

並列關鍵字

Grid-based clustering maximum likelihood estimate ； Building fragility curve ； Empirical procedure ； Chi-Chi Earthquake