馬基維利的國際現實主義：兼論弱國的外交抉擇

馬基維利被視為是當代政治現實主義的奠基者之一，他的思想也對當代國際政治產生深遠影響，他將國家擬人化，認定國家如同個人具有趨利避害、為達目的不擇手段的國家理性，身處這樣的世界，權力和安全是統治者最高考量。這種傾向會刺激各國強化武裝，當所有國家都大幅挹注軍事投資，將形成軍備競賽的「安全困境」。馬基維利探討過去歷史和義大利當時所處國際環境，發現各國為維護自身安全和擴大利益，會採取權力平衡的策略，但他強調「創建者」的角色，勢必打破權力平衡的有效性，將國際秩序推向霸權穩定論，國際社會將始終存在崛起霸權向現狀霸權挑戰的現象，當前者權力超越後者，就會產生權力移轉。對於弱國而言，馬基維利指出，採取中立政策將自取滅亡，這使得弱國必須在權力平衡和搭順風車策略之間做出選擇，由於弱國搭順風車等於是將自身生存交在強權手中，故多偏向採取權力平衡的策略。

關鍵字

安全困境；現實主義；搭順風車；權力平衡；權力移轉

並列摘要

Machiavelli is seen as one of the founders of modern political realism. His thoughts have had a profound effect on contemporary international politics. He personalizes the nations by stating that a nation, like an individual, pursues advantages and avoids detriments. He also glorifies instrumentality in state building - an approach embodied by saying that "the ends justify the means". Power and national safety are the top priorities for rulers of the world. With this mentality, rulers have a tendency to strengthen the military force, which justifies further investment in the military. Arms races can lead to a security dilemma. Machiavelli's analyses of the history of Italy revealed that states adopted the strategy of balance of power when they attempted to protect their personal safety and expanded their benefits. His stress of the role of "founder" is bound to ruin the validity of the balance of power, and it leads to the theory of hegemony stability. The phenomenon of the rising power challenging the status quo power will exist in the international community. When the former surpasses the latter, it will lead to a power transition. As pointed out by MachiavellI, weak states who adopted a neutral policy ended up defeating themselves. Thus, this triggers the weak states to make a choice between the balance of power and 'bandwagon'. Since bandwagoning is tantamount to submitting their own survival into the hands of the powerful states, weak states are likely to use the strategy of balance of power.

並列關鍵字

Balance of power ； Bandwagoning ； Power transition ； Realism ； Security dilemma

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