因應氣候變遷之洪災調適策略規劃

由於全球氣候變遷現象，使得臺灣將面對更高頻率、嚴重的天然災害。由於臺灣山坡地地質脆弱、坡度陡峭、河川湍急短促，屢屢釀成土石流失、崩塌及土石流在颱風、豪雨季節，地震與颱洪災害是臺灣最常面對的天然災害，臺灣可能是世界最脆弱的地區，臺灣約有73%的人口是居住在有三種以上災害可能衝擊之地區，特別是在1999年921地震後土石鬆軟，颱風帶來得豪雨使得坡地區土石流瀕傳或低窪地區淹水，鑒於臺灣位於極易受災的地區，如何針對各層級的國土空間規劃與管理上考慮減低其脆弱因子，提升回復能力的手段，已成為重要的研究課題。因此本研究嘗試應用這些概念在都市空間規劃與管理並建立評估指標與模式，本研究目的為應用衝擊矩陣與分析網路程序法於洪災調適策略規劃。希望透過本研究能夠建立具體可操作，並適用於都市之調適策略評估指標與模式，將可提供各級政府制定相關空間規劃政策與災害管理政策。

關鍵字

分析網路程序法（ANP）；洪災；調適

並列摘要

With the phenomenon of global climate change, Taiwan will face more frequently and severe natural disasters. Due to the weak geology, steep slope, high gradient and rapid velocity of stream, Taiwan was usually suffered from soil erosion, landslide and debris flow during the typhoon and torrential rainfall season. Earthquake, typhoon and flood are the most common natural disasters in Taiwan. Taiwan may be the most vulnerable area in the world, because 73% of the people live in the places where at least 3 natural hazards may impact. The 921 earthquake in 1999 caused softy of soils and sands which led to debris flow whenever there is heavy rainfall. Since Taiwan is located in disasters vulnerable area, how to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance resilience thus become very important issues for spatial planning and management in different level governments should consider some measures to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance resilience. Therefore, this study tries to applying these concepts to urban level spatial planning and management and establishes assessment indictors and model. The purpose of this research is to apply impact matrix and analytical network process to flood adaptation strategic planning. This study will finally establish a proper adaptation strategy assessment model which is suitable in urban level. Through this kind of research as well as others in different spatial levels, we will provide some principles and strategies for future spatial planning and disaster management policies.