核恐怖主義的嚇阻－概念與應用之探討

Deterrence of Nuclear Terrorism-A Study of Concept and Application

林泰和(Tai-Ho Lin)

《淡江國際與區域研究》 2卷2期 (2013/12) Pp. 1-37

摘要

核恐怖主義對傳統嚇阻概念構成非常嚴峻的挑戰。相較於傳統國家行為者，可以互相施行嚇阻戰略，恐怖組織將很難嚇阻。原因是恐怖組織與恐怖份子缺乏一般國家行為者所要保護的核心價值，也是一般嚇阻的對象，如領土防衛、國民保護，生命價值等。尤其是取得核武的恐怖組織，因為更具威脅性，增加嚇阻的難度與風險，遑論事後對其報復或採取先制攻擊。2003年5月伊斯蘭學者發出教令，使核武對抗異教徒的使用合理化，因此恐怖份子使用核武對抗國際社會的手段，成為一種夢魘。恐怖組織為非國家行為者，其運作模式不受到主權國家對於禁止使用大規模毀滅武器的規範所節制。同時，大規模毀滅武器的獨特優點，也會超過恐怖份子對核武規範的考量。因此綜合觀之，核恐怖主義似乎沒有易毀性，一旦恐怖份子取得核武，他們將可能毫不遲疑加以使用，包含嚇阻與攻擊。本論文將探討嚇阻概念對核恐怖主義的適用性。在此問題之下，首先討論核恐怖主義的威脅與風險，然後探討嚇阻在反恐脈絡下的意義，接下來分析核恐怖主義的發展與本質，最後探討對核恐怖主義的可能嚇阻方式，分析這種嚇阻對核恐怖主義有何機會與挑戰。

關鍵字

核恐怖主義 ； 恐怖主義 ； 嚇阻 ； 核戰略 ； 戰略

並列摘要

Nuclear terrorism sternly challenges the traditional concept of deterrence. Compared to the traditional state actors which can be mutually deterred, it will be very difficult to deter terrorist organizations. Since terrorist organizations lack core values that traditional state actors possess, such as territorial defense, population protection and emphasis of human lives. Terrorist groups, especially those armed with nuclear weapons, are more threatening. Therefore, deterrence of nuclear terrorists is difficult and risky, not to speak of retaliation and preemption against them.In May 2003, Islamic scholars issued a fatwa, which justify the use of nuclear weapons against infidels. Therefore, the scenario that terrorists could use nuclear weapons as a means against the international community becomes a nightmare. As nonstate actors, terrorist organizations are not subject to norms which prohibit the use of weapons of mass destruction abided by sovereign states. Meanwhile, the unique advantage of weapons of mass destruction will overweigh the concerns of terrorists regarding to the norms regarding to the prohibition of use of nuclear weapons. Accordingly, nuclear terrorism seems not to be vulnerable, once the terrorists obtain nuclear weapons, they will likely not hesitate to use them by means of deterrence and attack.This paper explores the concept of deterrence and its applicability to nuclear terrorism. The first section discusses the threat and risk of nuclear terrorism. Secondly the concept of deterrence in the context of nuclear terrorism will be analyzed. The third part scrutinizes the development and nature of nuclear terrorism. Finally, the paper inquires different approaches of deterrence of nuclear terrorism and the opportunities and challenges offered by those approaches.

並列關鍵字

Nuclear terrorism ； terrorism ； deterrence ； nuclear strategy ； strategy