委內瑞拉危機中的列強地緣政治博弈

楊建平 ； 王珍一

《拉丁美洲經貿季刊》 37期 (2019/06) Pp. 3-13

摘要

委內瑞拉政治危機，俄羅斯及中國成為馬杜羅（Nicolas Maduro）政權最重要支持國家，委內瑞拉亦繼20世紀冷戰時期的古巴及尼加拉瓜，成為21世紀強權在美國「後院」（backyard）的主要對抗基地。現階段委內瑞拉的政治危機之解決，似乎不取決於馬杜羅與瓜依多（Juan Guaidó）何者為合法政權，而在於立場完全相左的美國與俄羅斯兩世界強權之爭。馬杜羅總統積極尋求俄羅斯支持，而瓜依多的主要支持力量無疑地係來自美國。俄羅斯及中國反對「外力介入」及「威脅軍事干預」，而美國不會容忍「敵對外國勢力」干涉西半球事務。馬杜羅政權在美國為首的50餘國壓力下，若無法徹底垮台，委內瑞拉經歷此次危機後，將成為俄羅斯、中國，甚至伊朗的「忠實盟友」及「戰略夥伴」，美國的敵對國家在美國傳統「後院」影響力將持續上升。而若委內瑞拉危機依美國期盼方式落幕，代表美國2013年宣布已終結的「門羅主義」（Monroe Doctrine）重回拉丁美洲，俄羅斯、中國在拉丁美洲長期經營的勢力將受到重挫。

關鍵字

委內瑞拉危機 ； 俄委關係 ； 中委關係 ； 瓜依多臨時總統

並列摘要

Venezuela's political crisis, Russia and China has become President Nicolas Maduro's most important ally. Venezuela has also turned into the most powerful rivalry in the 21th century within the US's backyard after Cuba and Nicaragua during the Cold War in the 20th century. The current resolution of Venezuela's political crisis seems not to be determined by who is the rightful president of Venezuela - Nicolas Maduro or Juan Guaidó but the fight between the United States and Russia who have polar opposite standpoints. Nicolas Maduro actively seeking for Russia's support, however, there's no doubt that Juan Guaidó's main supportive strength comes from the United States. Russia and China are opposed to outside interference and threatening military intervention, and the United States is not going to tolerate hostilely foreign force to intervene the affairs of the Western world. Under the pressure of more than 50 countries led by the United States, if President Nicolas Maduro's government is not going to collapse, Venezuela will become a loyal ally and strategic partner with Russia and China, even Iran after experiencing this crisis. The United States' enemy countries will keep increasing according to the influence of America's traditional backyard. If Venezuela's political crisis ends in the way that the United States expects it does, it means that the Monroe Doctrine era the United States declared ended in 2013 will return to Latin America which leads to the setback in the force that Russia and China has developed in Latin American for a long time.

並列關鍵字

Venezuela Crisis ； Russia-Venezuela relations ； China- Venezuela relations ； Interim president Guido