基于客户终身价值的商业银行信贷定价模型的实证研究

客户应被视为企业的重要资产，客户价值是客户关系管理理论的核心要素之一。近年许多研究也将现有与未来新增客户的价值作为公司市场价值的预测基础，而且证明此种估计的方法相当精确。客户终身价值的驱动因素包括客户获取成本、客户边际利润与客户保留（流失）率，基于此可估算在客户生命周期内产生的现金流。商业银行的信贷客户较零售业客户更能体现其增值的空间，但是银行除追求价值与利润最大化之外，还需考虑风险损失的最小化。中国利率市场化后，将导致银行间竞争更趋激烈，商业银行各项金融产品的价格调整将日益频繁，存贷款利差将进一步缩小。因此，商业银行必须迅速提高贷款定价能力，建立科学合理的贷款定价机制，以适应利率市场化的金融环境。本文借鉴顾客终身价值理论研究成果，讨论在利率市场化后，商业银行可以如何建立以客户终身价值为基础的信贷定价模型，并以美国某银行的中小企业授信贷款客户的实际数据，展示算例的过程与结果。

關鍵字

商业银行信用风险；客户关系管理；客户终身价值；信贷定价模型

並列摘要

Customer should be considered an important asset for a business. Customer value has served as one of the core elements in the theory of customer relationship management. In recent years many studies have based their forecast of a firm's market value on the value of its current and potential customers. The result usually turned out to be rather accurate. The driving force behind the customer lifetime value includes the customer acquisition cost, marginal profit, and retention rate, on which the calculation of cash flow is based during the whole life cycle of a customer. The value of a commercial bank customer may have much more room appreciate than most retail customers. However, commercial banks must minimize the loan loss while maximizing the value and profit. The competition among Chinese commercial banks will be bound to intensify after the interest rates begin to liberalize. The commercial banks should elevate their capability of pricing the loan products in the face of liberalized loan rates so as to reduce their own risk properly. Based on the previous studies of customer relationship management, this article shows how a loan pricing model could be established with a foundation on the customer lifetime value. It also illustrates the application of model with the empirical data from a well-know commercial bank in the US.