改革開放以來中國勞動力份額變化趨勢研究及其影響因素分析

改革開放以來，伴隨著經濟和第二三產業的發展，中國勞動力份額發生了巨大的變化，這些變化表現在，農村勞動力的減少和城市勞動力的增加；農業勞動力向其他產業轉移；內陸勞動力向東部沿海流動的特點，這些變化還在繼續發展，勞動力的份額的變化速度還在不斷加快，不同省市勞動力的變化也呈現了不同的特點。這些變化有一定的規律和特點，為了分析這些變化趨勢，揭示勞動力變化的內在規律性，需要對勞動力的份額的變化情況進行深入的研究。造成這種變化有多種原因，主要有經濟發展和產業變化帶來的勞動力市場的放開，城市勞動力需求的增加，農村剩餘勞動力轉移，產業結構的變化以及城鄉、地區差距的拉大等多種因素。這些因素對勞動力份額影響效果有多大，需要通過定量的方法進行分析。雖然城市化率達到了50%，農業從業人口的比重大大下降，但是城市化速度還在不斷加快，農村剩餘勞動力還需要進一步轉移，勞動力產業之間的轉移更加頻繁，勞動力地域之間的配置更需合理。認識到了勞動力的變化規律，便能夠合理的控制和引導勞動力的變動，實現勞動力的合理配置，促進經濟的持續發展和勞動力報酬的提高。

關鍵字

勞動力份額；聚類分析；主成分回歸

並列摘要

Since the reform and opening up, along with the development of the economy and the secondary and tertiary industries, the labor share of China has undergone tremendous changes. These changes are manifested in the reduction of the rural labor forces and increase in the urban labor forces, transferring from agriculture to other industries, migrating from inland to the eastern coast. These changes still continue to develop, the rate of the change of labor share is accelerating. These changes of labor forces in the different provinces and cities showed different characteristics. These changes have certain rules and features. In order to analyze these trends, reveal the inherent regularity of the labor forces, we need to do depth study for changes of the labor share. Resulting in theses changes, these are a variety of reasons. These reasons are mainly liberalization of labor market, increasing demand of labors in urban, transferring of rural surplus labors, changes of industrial structure, and expansion of the urban-rural gap, and so forth. In order to analyse the effect of these factors, we need to use the method of quantitative analysis.Although the urbanization rate has attained 50%, and the proportion of Agricultural population has declined significantly, the pace of urbanization is still accelerating. The rural surplus labors need further transferring. The geographical configuration of labors need to rationalize. Recognize the law of the labor forces will be able to control and guide the changes of the labor forces, attaining the rational allocation of labors, and promoting sustained development of economy and the improvement of the labor remuneration.