- 期刊
- OpenAccess
犯罪生涯之存活分析－以中止犯、持續犯與一般青少年十年追蹤資料為例
Survival Analysis of Criminal Career: Using the 10 Years Tracking Data of Desister, Persister, and Normal Adolescent as an Example
摘要
當代犯罪學研究中，要以縱貫式研究的觀點來探討年齡與再犯的關係、或是不同樣本群的犯罪生命歷程樣貌，存活分析是一個極為適合的方法。在生命歷程研究中，也有許多學者運用存活分析的技術對犯罪的持續與中止進行探討，最常見的便是分析犯罪者出獄後再犯的狀況，或是再被逮捕的機率。但存活分析方法在國內犯罪學研究領域中的運用還方興未艾，本研究旨在運用存活分析方法，探討中止犯、持續犯與一般青少年的再犯狀態，藉以瞭解同組別青少年的再犯狀態，是否因生命歷程中某些因素之差異而有所不同？本研究將許春金、馬傳鎮等於1997～1999年對板橋、新莊地區建檔以及2007年追蹤刑案記錄整合資料之817位犯罪組與一般組青少年調查資料，以「初犯年齡」、「低自控狀況」、「父母親控制」、「家庭負面關係」、「初次偵查案件是否為毒品犯罪」、「偏差友伴」等六個變項做為變項，進行Kaplan Meier分析。發現除了「初犯年齡」的存活狀態未達顯著水準外，其餘五個變項，皆有顯著不同的存活狀態。進一步以「低自控狀況」、「父母親控制」、「家庭負面關係」、「初次偵查案件是否為毒品犯罪」、「偏差友伴」等五個變項做為自變項，以「存活時間」做為依變項進行Cox迴歸分析。則可發現所導出的三種迴歸方程式，對於預測存活時間皆有顯著性。本研究發現：「低自控狀況」、「父母親控制」、「家庭負面關係」、「初次偵查案件是否為毒品犯罪」、「偏差友伴」等五個變項，皆能預測其存活時間之長短。而其中以毒品有無的影響最為重要。並對於犯罪青少年的處遇，以及預防再犯提出以下建議：應對青少年犯罪進行持續防治；協助青少年低自我控制因素的因應；持續強化反毒與戒治工作；協助家庭負面關係的改善；對青少年偏差友伴予以管控。
並列摘要
In criminology research, survival analysis is a good method to use for analysis the relationship between age and reoffending, or the life course in different sample groups in longitudinal studies. There are many scholars use survival analysis to discuss the crime persistent and desistent in life course research, the most common is to analysis the criminal reoffending after they left jail, or rearrested. The survival analysis used in criminology research still not common in Taiwan. This study use the survival analysis methods to discuss the different of reoffending situation between desister, persister, and normal Adolescent, to understand it will effected by the factors in their life course or not. This study use the data of Sheu & Ma's research, the data is survey to 817 Juvenile delinquency and normal adolescent samples who lived in Banqiao and Xinzhuang Districts, New Taipei City during 1997~1999. The Kaplan Meier analysis shows that in addition to the age of first crime, the other variables as low self-control, parents control, negative relationship of family, Drug-related crimes as the first crime, delinquency friends, all have different survival time. In Cox regression analysis, we used low self-control, parents control, negative relationship of family, Drug-related crimes as the first crime, delinquency friends, as independent variables, the survival time as dependent variable. There are three models of Cox regression, all three models are significant. These variables can forecasting the survival time, especially drug using. About preventing and correcting with delinquency youth, we suggest that should continuous enhance the guidance of teen-agers, enhance the response ability of low self-control, enhance the anti-drug and rehabilitation works, and improve the family negative relationship, control the delinquency friends.
參考文獻
被引用紀錄
延伸閱讀
- 許春金、陳玉書、李國隆（2013）。一般青少年、中止犯與持續犯生命歷程之比較。載於法務部司法官學院（主編），刑事政策與犯罪研究論文集（頁197-218）。法務部司法官學院。https://doi.org/10.6482/ECPCR.201312.0011
- 朱憶華（2006）。成人個案、青少年、與兒童個案接案上的原則。臨床心理通訊，(32)，6-8。https://doi.org/10.29798/LCXLTX.200602.0004
- 丁映君（2012）。非行少年生命歷程中的社區處遇對其犯罪止續之影響〔碩士論文，國立臺北大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0023-2412201222480400
- Roshani, K., Jalili, S., & Adaryani, M. M. (2013). Investigating Relational Patterns of Belief in a Just/Unjust World, Satisfaction with Life and Mental Health in Female Students. Current Research Journal of Biological Sciences, 5(3), 136-140. https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=20410778-201305-201510300016-201510300016-136-140
- 柯佩均（2010）。Applying Data Mining in Analyzing the Co-occurrence and the Causality between Insomnia and Cardiovascular Disease or Cerebrovascular Disease〔碩士論文，國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.01245