何種樂觀預期驅動股市交易？自我預期vs.經濟預期

What Kind of Optimism Driving Stock Trading? Self-Optimism vs. Economic Optimism

郭敏華(Min-Hua Kuo) ； 許碧芳(Pi-Fang Hsu) ； 梁彥平(Yann-Ping Liang) ； 葉惠文(Huei-Wen Yeh)

《Journal of Data Analysis》 7卷6期 (2012/12) Pp. 101-113

https://doi.org/10.6338/JDA.201212_7(6).0005

摘要

過度自信者往往過度交易，而分析過去文獻可發現，所謂過度自信可能來自兩種類型的過度樂觀：對於自我以及對於環境的過度樂觀，但是迄無任何研究就此加以區別或分析。本研究乃利用台灣投資人情緒指數資料庫的全國性調查資料進行研究，總計取得6547個有效樣本。實證結果顯示，投資人的自我預期樂觀度對於交易頻次具有顯著的正向影響，而對於環境的預期樂觀度則與交易頻次無關。換句話說，如果過度自信使得投資人過度交易，其背後的關鍵乃在於投資人的自我預期較為樂觀，而非對於經濟發展的樂觀預期所致。本文係首篇針對過度樂觀對於交易頻次的影響進行具體區分與剖析的研究，對於學術界與實務界來說都具有一程度的啟發與貢獻。

關鍵字

過度自信 ； 交易頻次 ； 過度樂觀

並列摘要

Overconfidence leads to over trading. According to the literature, overconfidence comes from two kinds of over-optimism: over-optimism inwards and outwards. But there is no research devoted into their distinction and impacts respectively. By means of nationwide surveys on Taiwanese individual investors and collecting 6547 effective samples, this study explores and compares their influences on the trading frequency. The empirical results show that it is the inward over-optimism, i.e. the over-optimism on oneself, which leads to over trading. The over-optimism outward does not significantly impact the trading frequency when both kinds of over-optimism are considered. This is the first paper to make distinction between inward and outward over-optimism. The findings are valuable for academics and practical investment when evaluating the impacts from overconfidence on investment.

並列關鍵字

overconfidence ； trading frequency ； over-optimism

參考文獻

Beyer, Sylvia,Bowden, Edward(1997).Gender differences inself-perceptions: Convergent evidence from three measures of accuracy and bias.Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin.23,157-172.

Beyer, Sylvia(1998).Gender differences in self-perception and negative recall biases.Sex Roles.38,103-132.

Barber, Brad M.,Odean, Terrance(1997).Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?.Review of Financial Studies.15,455-488.

Barber, Brad M.,Odean, Terrance(2001).Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, And Common Stock Investment.The Quarterly Journal of Economics.116,261-292.

Deaux, Kay,Farris, Elizabeth(1977).Attributing causes for one's own performance: The effects of sex, norms, and outcome.Journal of Research in Personality.11,59-72.