財務績效資料分析的貝氏詮釋：面對不景氣時全球汽車電子產業的策略構型

追求發展或重視績效孰重?又稱作資本家的兩難(Christensen & Bever, 2014)。當企業面臨不景氣時，使用財務報酬率來衡量組織績效，財務績效不佳往往使主事者更裹足不前。本文先以貝氏認識論觀點推導企業面臨不景氣時的應對之道，說明企業面臨不景氣時，即使初期能充分發揮競爭優勢的機率值較低，但是若能不斷累積競爭優勢的持續性，在財務績效緩步累積的過程，會發現競爭優勢可持續並迅速累積，當雨過天晴或景氣回春後就可望達到高績效表現。本文使用的實證案例整合了美國、歐洲及日本東亞等地主要的汽車電子廠商，且皆為2007 年至2011 年間名列於標準普爾(Standard & Poor)中財務資訊完整者為例。本研究期間歷經金融海嘯後所造成的全球性市場衰退，研究顯示，此期間全球汽車電子產業資本報酬率普遍不佳，但以因素分析解構財務杜邦恆等式組成的變數，仍可歸納出此期間企業競爭優勢形成的內涵。實證上經過因素分析歸因出高研發、高投入設備、高現金週轉、以及高效能通路管理等四項形成企業的資源構型。這些構型在全球汽車電子零件供應鏈上各具擅場，擁有這些構型於否，可據以將各汽車電子廠商所擁有的資源特色集群化。本研究顯示在此期間，若以投入資本報酬率檢驗各族群的績效表現，產能均衡發展者和具產品通路優勢的企業，績效表現反而較不受影響。歷經金融風暴後，對台灣相關汽車電子企業而言，由於多為產能均衡發展的半導體廠商，正好可發揮競爭優勢，例如因地利之便積極開拓全球最大的中國大陸汽車消費市場。本研究嘗試解釋了在歷經全球金融風暴後，市況相當不景氣的期間，汽車電子廠商策略構型內涵。研究結果應可協助相關企業思索在服務科學發展趨勢下，要能看清楚本身在產業價值鏈的資源構型的重要性，而不是只執著於短期財務績效報酬率的表象，形塑企業面對處理不景氣時財務績效低迷的積極策略。

關鍵字

不景氣；競爭優勢；貝氏認識論；杜邦恆等式

並列摘要

A recession includes declines in economic activities. One management dilemma occurs in which companies wonder to pursue both goals for sustained growth and short-term profits simultaneously. This study examines competitive advantages and organization performances for sustainability in the world automotive electronics industry through financial crisis by Bayesian Epistemology viewpoints. More specifically, we examine the extent to which resource configuration embedded in automotive electronic providers' financial performance may explain the comparative advantage among strategic archetypes including market leader, technology innovator, and channel network facilitator. The company financial reports were generated from Compustat (Standard & Poor), CVEL (The Clemson University Vehicular Electronics Laboratory, US), Marklines (Automotive Information Platform, Japan), and automotive electronics sector in MIC (Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute, Taiwan). Findings in factor analysis indicate four profound resource configurations: R&D capability, asset management, cash flow turnover, and channel distribution management. A further investigation by clustering analysis has revealed these companies can be categorized into four distinctive strategic patterns: the heavy asset burdened, substantial investment in R&D, robust channel networking, and industry multi -developers. Moreover, the return on Invested capital (ROIC) from the group in substantial investment in R&D or assets did not perform as effectively as expected during the research period, 2007-2011. Our report suggests that the burgeoning global automobile electronics has gone through an economic cycle as well as an industrial evolution. Lastly, insights on the importance of this industry to Taiwan's technology extensions from semiconductor are also provided..