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Earnings Management and the Signalling of Cash Dividend Changes for Future Profitability

盈餘管理對現金股利變動訊號效果影響之研究

摘要


This research primarily examines whether earnings management prior to cash dividend changes conveys information about future profitability. Both dividend increases and decreases signal for future profitability for at least two subsequent years. For firms which conservatively manage earnings, dividend decrease or no-change in dividends convey favourable information about future profitability. By contrast, the information contained in aggressive earnings management varies with dividend changes. Firms managing earnings aggressively but cutting dividend experience higher current but deterioration in future profitability. Aggressive earnings management for firms which do not change dividends conveys managers' optimistic prospect for future performance. In addition, earnings management, regardless of conservative or aggressive, for firms increasing dividends does not contain explicit information about future profitability.

並列摘要


本研究主要檢驗現金股利變動前之盈餘管理是否影響股利對未來盈餘之訊號效果。單就現金股利變動而言,股利增加與減少皆傳遞未來兩年公司獲利良窳之訊息。對於保守盈餘管理之公司,股利不變或減少皆隱含未來公司獲利增加的訊息。相對地,積極盈餘管理之公司所隱含訊息較為分歧。積極盈餘管理卻減少股利支付的公司,同時期獲利較佳,未來獲利卻呈現衰退的現象。積極盈餘管理而股利不變的公司,隱含未來獲利進步的訊息。至於股利增加的公司,積極或消極盈餘管理似乎都未隱含公司未來獲利性之訊息。

並列關鍵字

盈餘管理 現金股利 訊號效果

參考文獻


Benartzi, S., R. Michaely and R.H. Thaler. "Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?", Journal of Finance, (52), 1997, pp. 1007-1034.
Chan, K., D.L. Ikenberry, I. Lee and Y. Wang. "Share Repurchases as a Potential Tool to Mislead Investors", Journal of Corporate Finance, (16), 2010, pp. 137-158.
Daniel, N.D., D.J. Denis and L. Naveen. "Do Firms Manage Earnings to Meet Dividend Thresholds?", Journal of Accounting and Economics, (45), 2008, pp. 2-26.
Dechow, P.M., R.G. Sloan and A.P. Sweeney. "Detecting Earnings Management", The Accounting Review, (70), 1995, pp. 193-225.
Gong, G., H. Louis and A.X. Sun. "Earnings Management and Firm Performance Following Open-Market Repurchases", Journal of Finance, (63), 2008, pp. 947-986

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