確定提撥方式下退休所得的風險評估

Risk Valuation of the Retirement Income for the Defined Contribution Pension Scheme

張士傑(Shih-Chieh Chang) ； 林妙姍(Miao-Shan Lin)

《風險管理學報》 1卷1期 (1999/05) Pp. 35-62

https://doi.org/10.30003/JRM.199905.0002

摘要

本文主要針對確定提撥計畫進行分析，檢視此退休計畫下的退休給付及財務精算模型的建立，討論於總體經濟條件改變時對於退休給付所得的風險。本文將以「勞工退休金條例」草案為例進行實證分析，給定平準的預定利率假設，而薪資成長率、通貨膨脹率、開始提撥年齡、退休年齡、退休後死亡率根據目前的經濟、就業環境給定，模擬結果發現，6%的合併提撥率無法達到給定50%的退休後給付所得替代率；若將合併提撥率提高至12%以上，25歲開始工作65歲退休者才能累積足以支應適足所得替代率50%的給付。其次，給定七種利率情境並固定其他精算假設。模擬結果發現，若合併提撥率為9%，基金提撥累積期間40年，給付所得替代率對利率的變動敏感性高，只有在累積期間利率穩定成長的情形下，才能累積足夠的退休金。

關鍵字

確定提撥計畫 ； 合併提撥率 ； 所得替代率

並列摘要

The defined contribution pension plan and its benefit scheme is studied in this paper. The actuarial models are built to investigate the adequacy of its retirement benefits. Computer codes that are capable of simulating the income-replacement ratios given the actuarial assumptions are programmed. Hence the relationship between income-replacement ratios and the actuarial assumptions can be obtained. Sensitivity analyses of the benefit adequacy through computer simulations under possible scenarios are performed. The recent proposal of reforming Taiwan Employee Retirement Income Security Act (”TERISA”) is investigated. An explicit actuarial model closely following this proposal is built to study its impact on the retirement benefits. Finally the empirical results based on this study are summarized. Based on the scenarios under the current economic perspectives, we found the contribution rate at 6% can not attain the income-replacement ratio at 50%. Only over certain optimal interest rates, the retiree can receive the projected income-replacement ratio given the contribution rate at 9%.

並列關鍵字

Defined Contribution ； Contribution Rate ； Income-Replacement Ratio