- 期刊
台灣壽險業商業型醫療費用保險之風險評估
The Study on Evaluating Risk of Commercial Medical Expense Insurance Policies for Life Insurance Industry in Taiwan
摘要
本文主要目的為計算不同類型醫療費用保險商品保費，並且分析不同商業型醫療費用保險商品對壽險公司經營風險之影響。首先，不同類型商品先以相同的給付條件並且假設預定利率為5.5%計算各種類型醫療費用保險商品保費。然後利用蒙地卡羅模擬法模擬資產面的現金流入包含保費收入與投資收益，減去負債面之醫療給付支出，進而檢視不同類型商業醫療費用保險之經營風險及資產價值為負的機率。研究結果發現壽險公司經營無上限理賠終身醫療費用資產價值為負的機率最高而且變異程度最大，帳戶型醫療費用保險資產價值為負的機率最低，因為其帳戶內之理賠總金額具有上限，因此經營風險較低。此外定期醫療費用保險期間越長，為負的機率與變異程度越大。最後本文利用台灣股市資料估計幾何布朗運動模型參數，發現其模擬結果會使保險公司資產價值之變異程度都較CIR模型增加，顯示壽險公司若將資產投資台灣股市其風險會高於持有債券。由模擬結果顯示，壽險公司所發行商業型醫療費用保險商品的特性會對於將來的經營風險有重大的影響。
並列摘要
As Taiwan has entered into the elder age society, people need high medical quality demand to cover their expensive healthcare expense. Since 1997, life insurance companies in Taiwan have issued various medical products. How to evaluate the risk of these medical products is an important issue for life insurers. The main purpose of this paper is analyzing what will various commercial medical expenses insured policies cause impacts on financial strength of life insurance companies. With the assumed interest rate is 5.5%, we compute different type medical expense insurance's premium and simulate the asset value of life insurance companies in the future by using the Monte-Carlo Simulation Method. The cash inflow contains the premium income, the investment yield and cash outflow contains medical service expense. This paper compares operational risk and insolvency probability of three different type commercial medical expense insurance policies including non-upper limit medical expense insurance, account medical expense insurance and term medical expense insurance. Our findings discover that the insolvency probability of the non-upper limit medical expense insurance is higher than the account medical expense insurance and term medical expense insurance. The account medical expense insurance has lowest operational risk for life insurers due to the clauses with limited cover. In addition, long-term medical expense insurance has more insolvency probability and uncertainty than short-term medical expense insurance. Moreover, the operating risk will enhanced by the Geometric Brownian Motion model simulation. It means that life insurers have high variation of asset value and riskiness by holding stock comparing with holding bonds. We suggest that how to design health insurance products will have a significant impact on operation management for life insurers.