棒球比賽獲勝之關鍵打擊技戰術因素探討－以2013至2021黑豹期四強賽為例

棒球運動中，打擊能力是團隊能否獲勝的關鍵因素，而打擊是得分的基礎，也是棒球得分最主要的攻擊手段之一，攻擊能力之強弱，往往會影響球隊勝負。目的：數據科學逐漸受到我國競技運動領域的重視，尤其是棒球運動，而近年來黑豹旗全國高中棒球大賽更是最受矚目的學生運動之一，因此本研究比較2013年至2021年黑豹旗全國高中棒球大賽之四強賽勝敗隊伍在「團隊打擊能力指標」之差異。方法：樣本以近九年進入黑豹旗全國高中棒球大賽四強之隊伍進行分析，隊伍數共計58隊，對戰數共計29場。依黑豹旗全國高中棒球大賽公開之影片為資料，將每位打者逐打席、逐顆紀錄。統計方法使用相依樣本t檢定（paired t-test），比較勝敗雙方之十一項團隊打擊能力指標（上壘率、打擊率、長打率、打數、安打數、保送百分比、高飛犧牲打數、壘打數、犧牲短打成功率、滾地球數、高飛球數）之差異，設顯著水準α=.005。結果：勝隊之上壘率、長打率、保送百分比與犧牲短打成功率，顯著高於敗隊（p<.005）。結論：上壘率、長打率、保送百分比與犧牲觸擊成功率，為我國高中棒球比賽中關鍵的獲勝因子，此結果將可提供各隊教練與打者在安排打擊陣容之排序與下達戰術作為參考依據，提升我國整體棒球實力。

關鍵字

棒球大數據；高中棒球；棒球戰術；短打

並列摘要

Research has established the significance of batting ability in baseball, with various studies examining the relationship between batting metrics and team performance. Metrics such as batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and strikeout and walk rates have been evaluated, along with the impact of physical fitness, technique, and psychology on batting performance and team success. Purposes: This study compared the "Team Batting Ability Index" of winning and losing teams in the final four matches from 2013 to 2021, using statistical methods to draw conclusions about key factors contributing to team success. The findings have implications for coaches, players, and organizations in competitive sports, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making for improving performance and achieving success. Methods: A total of 58 teams and 29 matches that had entered the final four of the Taiwan high school baseball league during 2013 - 2021 were analyzed. Each batter was recorded one by one based on the video released by the Taiwan high school baseball league. The statistical method used was a paired t-test to compare the winning and losing team's eleven Team Batting Ability Index, including on-base percentage, batting percentage, slugging percentage, at-bats, hits, base on balls percentage, sacrifice flies, total bases, successfully sacrifice bunts percentage, ground balls, and fly balls. Results: The on-base percentage, slugging percentages, base on balls percentage, and successfully sacrifice bunts percentage of the winning teams were significantly higher than losing team (p < .005). Batting average, at-bats, hits, sacrifice flies, total bases, ground balls, and fly balls did not have significant difference between winning team and losing team (p > .005). Conclusions: The on-base percentage, slugging percentage, base on balls percentage, and successfully sacrifice bunts percentage were the key winning factors in Taiwan high school baseball league. The results can provide coaches and batters with useful information about each team's batting lineup ranking and tactics. The findings can further enhance Taiwan's baseball strength.

並列關鍵字

baseball big data ； high school baseball ； batting ； baseball tactics ； bunts

參考文獻

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