預期景氣變動對預售屋與成屋價格差異影響之研究

On Price Differences between Presale Houses and Existing Houses: The Impact of Expected Real Estate Cycles

白金安(Chin-Ann Pai) ； 張金鶚(Chin-Oh Chang)

《中國財務學刊》 3卷2期 (1996/01) Pp. 99-114

https://doi.org/10.6545/JoFS.1996.3(2).6

摘要

本文主要在於探討預售屋、成屋與景氣三者的關係，分析預期景氣變動對預售屋與成屋價格差異影響的原因為何？並藉由期貨之儲存理論建立預期景氣變動價差模式，說明預期景氣變動，如預期景氣上揚、持平、下滑時預售屋及成屋價差之關係為何？最後利用太平洋房屋公司所提供之77-79年大台北都會區實際成交個案予以證實，以期進一步了解預售屋的市場行為，並作為訂價時的參考。

並列摘要

This paper is to discuss the relationship among expected real estate cycle, existing house and presales house. The presales housing system is a unique feature of the real estate industry in Taiwan. It is a presales contract, the type of contract trading specifies the date to deliver the house, which is similar to the trade of a forward or futures. So most research of presales house price uses the storage theory from the aspect of no arbitrage equilibrium to deduce the presales houses price and analyses the relation of existing house and presales house. Because the contract of presales house is a contract transaction the specifies a future date of existing houses. Therefore, the prediction of expected real estate cycles between the transaction and delivery dates is an important factor in affecting price differences between pres ales and existing houses. In this paper, we establish the model of price differences from expected real estate cycle, and then used to analyze and verify previous empirical results. We find market changes are expected to slide, the basis gradually decreases. This is caused by the greater decrease in the price of presales houses than that of the existing houses.