氣候變遷水資源風險評估與調適決策之探討

童慶斌 ； 劉子明 ； 林嘉佑 ； 曹榮軒 ； 李明旭

《土木水利》 42卷4期 (2015/08) Pp. 30-45

https://doi.org/10.6653/MoCICHE.201508_42(4).0006

摘要

近年來氣候變遷議題備受矚目並影響水資源永續發展，從國家、政府單位到企業團體，無不開始著手於氣候變遷風險評估與調適策略之擬定。然而面對氣候變遷之威脅，政府單位往往不知如何才算是氣候變遷調適規劃，執行氣候變遷調適之專業團隊也可能面臨不知氣候變遷風險定義為何，以及如何評估氣候變遷或該使用那些資料才能擬訂完善之調適策略。站在學術立場，有必要以科學角度建立一套氣候變遷調適決策步驟，以利政府單位與專業團隊懂得如何評估與調適。本研究乃參考國際間針對氣候變遷所制定之調適步驟流程，擬定跨領域氣候變遷調適決策六大步驟，從問題界定與目標設定、評估與分析現況風險、評估與分析未來風險、界定與評估調適選項、規劃與執行調適路徑、到監測與修正調適路徑等六大步驟，適合所有領域面對氣候變遷之調適決策。並以水資源系統為案例，說明每一步驟之細節、使用工具與產出，以作為氣候變遷調適決策之參考。

並列摘要

In recent years, issue of climate change was highly focused and influenced sustainable development of water resources. From nation, government agencies, to business groups, all began to develop climate change risk assessment and adaptation strategies. But facing of the threat of climate change, the government agencies often do not know how we can make the adaptation plan to climate changes, the professional team which in charge of making climate change adaptation plan may also face the problem of not knowing the definition of climate change risk and how to assess climate change or what to use of those materials in order to improve the adaptation strategies. Standing in academic position, it is necessary to establish a scientific point of view of climate change adaptation decision steps to facilitate the government agencies and professional team knows how to evaluate and develop adaptation plan. This study referenced the international climate change adaptation steps to develop the six steps of making climate change adaptation strategies, from problem definition and goal setting, current risk assessment and analysis, future risk assessment and analysis, identifying and evaluating adaptation options, planning and implementing adaptation pathway, and monitoring and adjusting adaptation pathway. It is suitable for all areas on climate change adaptation decision-making. Using water resources systems as an example, details of each step, the use of tools and outputs are explained as a reference to climate change adaptation decision-making.