胡錦濤時期中共對台政策研究

Chinese Policy toward Taiwan under the Era of Hu

江和華(He-Hua Jiang) ； 林香吟(Kogin Hayashi)

《弘光學報》 75期 (2015/06) Pp. 75-85

https://doi.org/10.6615/HAR.201506.75.06

摘要

在崛起中國的國際氛圍下，緊鄰中國的臺灣應是感受與受影響最深的地區。就經驗與事實顯示，中國的崛起已有和平的發展方向與趨勢。就台灣而言，相對於兩岸之間長期的軍事對峙或冷戰與冷和的僵局，相信這是兩岸關係全新的契機以及中共嶄新的對台政策。中共新時期的對台方針是本文的研究重點。但在全文結構上，本文首先論述中共的和平崛起，以為中共對台方針的前置基礎。此外，充分瞭解國際權力結構並善用形勢，應是臺灣的生存之道與避險之方。在研究的時間範疇上，雖然自2008年起，兩岸兩會已簽訂協議，國際觀察家也以為兩岸關係進展神速，然而這時間仍相對的短且後續效應也仍未穩定，因此本文論述中共的對台方針主要是指胡錦濤自2002年掌權以來的這段時期，比起中共的歷屆領導人，胡錦濤的對台政策相當的新穎與靈活，但本文也搭配胡錦濤時代的和平崛起論，以使政策及其背景有脈絡一貫的說明。雖然中共已進入「習李體制」，但相信短時間內仍會是「胡規習隨」，故胡錦濤時代的對台方針仍有承先啟後作用。

關鍵字

中國崛起 ； 兩岸關係 ； 胡錦濤時代 ； 和平發展

並列摘要

In the international mood of China rise, close to China the Taiwan should be the most influenced area. In the appearance of experiences and facts, China rise have been to the developing direction and trend of peace. For Taiwanese position, that is a new opportunity for Cross-Strait relation and a new policy toward Taiwan for Chinese Communism Party(CCP), relatively the one which is in military confrontation and Cold-War between Cross-Straits´ governments for decades. This article focus its study on the CCP´ new policy toward Taiwan in the new era. However, in the structure of this article, it discourse upon Chinese peaceful rise first as to the premise of CCP´ policy toward Taiwan. Moreover, to perceive international power structure fully and to take advantage with the situation outside that will be the way of survival and evading risk for Taiwan. In the time scope of study, since 2008, the Cross-Strait governments have signed agreements and Cross-Strait relation have been developped speedily under the point of international observer. But, that time still is relatively short and the effect of consequence is not stable yet. Thus, this article talking about the the CCP´ new policy toward Taiwan, mainly point to the Hu Jin-tao´s era after coming to power in 2002. In comparison to past leader, Hu´s new strategy toward Taiwan seem to be flexible and fresh. But, this article will couple with the thesis of Peaceful Rise as to illustrate the consistence between context and its policy.

並列關鍵字

China rise ； Cross-Strait relation ； era of Hu Jin-tao ； peaceful development

參考文獻

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