International Comparison and Prediction of the Trend of Thyroid Cancer

Chien-Yang Chan ； Wan-Lun Hsu ； Chun-Ju Chiang ； Li-Jen Liao

《International Journal of Head and Neck Science》 5卷1期 (2021/03) Pp. 25-31

https://doi.org/10.6696/IJHNS.202103_5(1).0004

摘要

Background: The incidence of thyroid cancer was increasing gradually. The aims of this study are to compare the trends of thyroid cancer around the world and predict the trends of future thyroid cancer in Taiwan. Methods: We collected the thyroid cancer incidence in five continents from International Agency for Research on Cancer from 1960 to 2015 and the data from Taiwan Cancer Registry database from 1995 to 2015. We used R software and Norpred package by age-period-cohort (APC) model to predict the incidence trends of thyroid cancer in Taiwan. Results: Incidence of thyroid cancer has been increasing worldwide. The standardized thyroid cancer incidence rate in South Korea has reached 18.3 and 88.5 per 100,000 person-years for male and female, respectively, showing much higher incidence rate than other nations. The following nations were Brazil, China (Shanghai), Taiwan, and USA. In the Taiwan Cancer Registry database, an increasing trend of thyroid cancer incidence can also be found in the past two decades. With the data from 1995 to 2015 and APC model prediction, we find an increasing trend in the future. The prediction of standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer for male and female will be 18.8 and 43.3 per 100,000 person-years in 2031-2035 by APC model. Conclusions: The incidence of thyroid cancer is increasing worldwide. With APC model estimation, we suppose the incidence of thyroid cancer will keep raising in the future.

關鍵字

databases ； factual ； registries ； thyroid neoplasms