中國大陸與東協談判《南海行為準則》之進程與挑戰

The Negotiating Progress of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and Its Challenges between China and ASEAN

林廷輝(Ting-Hui LIN)

《中央警察大學水上警察學報》 8期 (2019/12) Pp. 99-138

摘要

2002年11月，中國大陸與東協國家在柬埔寨金邊簽署《南海各方行為宣言》（the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, DOC），成為中國大陸自1974年發動中越「西沙海戰」（the Paracel Islands war）、1988年中越「赤瓜礁戰役」（Johnson South Reef Skirmish）以及1995年中菲「美濟礁事件」（Mischief Reef Incident）以來，中國大陸表達願與東協國家透過和平方式解決爭議，然該《宣言》並無強制的法律拘束力，因此東協國家都希望與中國大陸完成《南海行為準則》（the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, COC）談判，希望以具有法律拘束力的文件約束中國大陸在南海的行為。然而，2002年《宣言》簽署後，中國大陸採取消極的態度應對東協國家提出談判《準則》的請求，至2012年4月發生中菲「黃岩島」（民主礁）事件後，2013年年初菲律賓對中國大陸提出「南海仲裁案」，為化解其在南海面對壓力，避免域外勢力涉入南海事務過深，展現中國大陸有能力與東協國家共同處理南海問題，因此《準則》談判進入較為積極的階段，2018年更完成《南海行為準則單一磋商文本草案》（Single Draft Negotiating Text, SDNT）。中國大陸國務院總理李克強及外交部長王毅都曾言，希望《準則》在菲律賓擔任中國大陸與東協共同輪值主席國三年任期內完成。本文旨在解析《準則》談判過程及可能涉及的具體內容，是否具有法律上的拘束力，其風險管控機制例如海軍的《海上相遇準則》（the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, CUES）及外事部門間的「熱線」（hotlines）機制，至於《準則》生效前後對區域安全影響為何，亦為本文探討重點。

關鍵字

南海各方行為宣言 ； 南海行為準則 ； 南海 ； 海上相遇準則 ； 熱線

並列摘要

China and ASEAN countries signed the Declaration on the Conduct (DOC) of Parties in the South China Sea in Phnom Penh, the Kingdom of Cambodia in November 2002. The DOC showed the Chinese willing to deal with the South China Sea (SCS) disputes through peaceful settlement after Sino-Vietnam the Paracel Islands War in 1974, Sino-Vietnam Johnson South Reef Skirmish in 1988 and Sino- the Philippines Mischief Reef Incident in 1995. However the DOC is lack of legal binding, ASEAN countries want to complete the Code of Conduct (COC) in the SCS as soon as possible to regulate China's activities in this area. After signing the DOC in 2002, China's attitude to COC requested by ASEAN countries is negative. The Scarborough Shoal Incident in April, 2012 forced the Philippines initiating arbitration proceedings against China. In order to eliminate the pressure from other SCS claimants and non-SCS claimants' intervention, and to show China have the capacity to deal with SCS dispute with ASEAN countries, China adapted positive attitude to negotiate COC with other claimants and completed a Single Draft Negotiating Text (SDNT) in 2018. China Prime Minister Lee Keqiang and foreign minister Wang Yi both said the goal of concluding COC consultations within three years, which the Philippines is the co-chair of ASEAN plus China. This paper analyzes the possible contents of COC relating to legal binding, risk management such as the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, CUES between Navies and hotlines mechanism between diplomatic units and also mentions about the impacts of regional security after COC entering into force.

並列關鍵字

the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea ； the Code of Conduct ； the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea ； the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea ； hotlines