南海競逐現況研究－以美中越互動觀察分析

Research on the Current Competition between the US and China in the South China Sea-from the Perspective of US-Sino-Vietnam Interactions

呂兆祥

《海軍學術雙月刊》 47卷4期 (2013/08) Pp. 34-45

https://doi.org/10.6237/NPJ.201308_47(4).0003

摘要

一、本研究以權力平衡概念探討美中南海競逐現況，以美國、中共與越南為研究對象，藉美中越三國在南海問題中的官方及學者之論述與談話等文獻實施分析與探討。二、越南藉團結東協國家並結合大國力量共同抗衡中共。中共基於整體戰略利益，採取雙邊及多邊對話的彈性手法，短期內將不會以武力解決問題。東亞的區域穩定相對促進美國的經濟及安全利益，同時也可擴大美國在此區域的影響力。故美中對南海地區無害通行權的爭議，雖潛伏軍事衝突的危機，但仍有適當的緩衝空間。三、越南抗衡中共屬以弱敵強模式，臺灣在美中兩大強權間，應力行中道、審時度勢，善用地緣優勢，將情勢轉向使美中雙方爭取臺灣，而非臺灣在軍事上拉美，經濟上傾中的被動現況。

關鍵字

南海 ； 權力平衡 ； 美中關係 ； 國家安全

並列摘要

1. This research adopts the concept of balance of power to examine the current competition between the US and China in the South China Sea by studying the US, China and Vietnam as research subjects. Discourses and spoken communications of the US, Chinese and Vietnamese governments and scholars in relation to the issues arising from the South China Sea are analyzed and examined. 2. Vietnam, on the one hand, has united with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and other major powers to contend with China. China, on the other hand, has adopted flexible approach by holding bi-lateral and multi-lateral talks based on its overall strategic interests so China is unlikely to resort to military means in the near future. The regional stability in East Asia not only meets the US economic and security interests well, but also enhances the US influence in this region. As a result, although a potential military clash could erupt between the US and China caused by the dispute over the right of innocent passage in the South China Sea, adequate cushion does exist to prevent the occurrence of military clash. 3. In the case of Vietnam, it is a weak power to contend with a mighty power in China. Since Taiwan is caught between the two major powers of the US and China, it should adhere to a moderate way and fully utilize its geographical advantage. Therefore, Taiwan can play a pivotal role between the US and China, shifting from the passive role now played in that Taiwan is militarily dependent on the US while economically tilts towards China.

並列關鍵字

South China Sea ； Balance of Power ； US-Sino relations ； National security