濱海作戰聲納預測法差異性之模擬分析

Simulation analysis of the difference of sonar prediction in littoral water

彭巧明 ； 王貴民 ； 陳琪芳

《海軍學術雙月刊》 50卷3期 (2016/06) Pp. 140-154

https://doi.org/10.6237/NPJ.201606_50(3).0009

摘要

一、大洋與濱海兩種海域具有截然不同的海洋環境與海底性質，採用大洋式的聲納效能預測於濱海區域會出現差異性。美海軍自二戰後即慣於大洋作戰，所使用的聲納效能預測法至今仍多為距離獨立(Range-Independent)模式；用於濱海區域的聲納效能預測則應以距離相依(Range-Dependent)模式為主。二、學術與科學界對濱海區域陸續發展各種理論與實際海洋測量數據，但卻未見以不同聲納效能預測法結合實際反潛戰術之相關研究。本研究針對濱海區域，建立蒙地卡羅模擬模式，發展戰術階層想定，以大量重複模擬方式求算大洋反潛作戰使用的距離獨立模式與濱海所用的距離相依模式兩聲納預測法之作戰效益數據，並以統計之變異數分析(ANOVA)進行兩者在反潛效益上的差異性評估。三、經一千次的模擬運算，以單艦為例，兩者在潛艦速率為3、6、9節時的偵測率差異為0.095、0.051、0.029，感覺上此一差異似在容忍範圍內，但經過嚴謹的ANOVA分析後，發現兩者間具有極大的差異。四、我國四面環海，屬於典型濱海國家，海洋環境與海底性質十分複雜，加上我國艦船系統大多向美採購，必須瞭解美系載台與系統在濱海區域使用上的限制，並積極結合學術科研界的智慧持續進行相關海域的實測與模式(如ASORPS)之充實，以續保有濱海國之反潛優勢。

關鍵字

模擬 ； 聲納 ； 偵測率 ； 變異數分析 ； 距離獨立 ； 距離相依模式

並列摘要

1. The characteristics between ocean and littoral water are distinct. The sonar prediction model used in these two waters are different and the misusage of them will cause imprecisions on detection. The U.S. Navy have been relying on range independent model in ocean for ASW search since World War II, but in littoral water the range dependent model is preferred for the complex water environment. 2. Despite the academic and scientific societies have successfully developed theories and collected the oceanic data over littoral water, the studies on using the different models of sonar prediction on anti-submarine tactics in littoral waters are rare. In terms of that, this study develops Monte Carlo simulation model. Greatly used repeated simulations to calculate the operational efficiency data of two different methods of the prediction of the sonar. One is Range-Independent which is operated under oceanic antisubmarine warfare, and the other one is Range-Dependent which is operated in the littoral waters. ANOVA analyzes two different methods in respect of anti-submarine efficiencies. 3. Under one thousand times of simulation runs on a single surface ASW ship scenario, the difference between these two methods on detection probability over the submarine are 0.095, 0.051, and 0.029 with respect to 3, 6, and 9 knots of the submarine's speed. The difference of these number are very significant from ANOVA. 4. Taiwan is surrounded by seas with the typical littoral country. The maritime environment and topology are complex. Moreover, the warships' systems onboard are mostly purchased from the U.S., with that the understanding of the littoral water limitations on the U.S. ASW systems is necessary. One way to keep ASW advantage over the Taiwan littoral water is to integrate the intelligence from academic and scientific fields with their efforts on those nonstop ocean data collections and models' improvement (such as ASOPRS).

並列關鍵字

Simulation ； Sonar ； Detection Probability ； ANOVA ； range-independent/range-dependent acoustic model