透過您的圖書館登入
IP:3.142.173.72
  • 期刊

從中印洞朗對峙事件看大國博弈智慧

摘要


一、2017年6月中印在洞朗邊界對峙的姿態逐步升高,戰爭一觸即發。就在廈門金磚峰會前一周,印度從洞朗撤兵,結束72天的對峙事件,對峙期間雙方都採取了優勢戰略作為,為各自爭取了最大的利益。二、印度的戰略布局:一方面聯合美國、日本、澳洲、越南;二方面積極拉攏周邊的孟加拉、緬甸、斯里蘭卡,並給予尼泊爾和不丹施加外交壓力,也想拉攏蒙古,企圖對中共形成包圍態勢;三方面持續增兵中印邊界,擺開一副準備戰爭架式;四方面印度的輿論界為政府塗脂抹粉,塑造軍隊實力堅強、不畏戰的形象。三、中共的戰略布局除增兵青藏高原和南疆,持續大規模軍演之外,亦啟動對南亞各國的外交統一戰線,並結合輿論戰、心理戰和法律戰,塑造中共合法捍衛領土主權的正當形象。四、對峙事件在各方關注下落幕。從結果來看,中印相爭旗鼓相當,大國博弈不相上下,彼此智慧各有千秋;從整體觀察,前者更重視長遠的戰略利益,後者顯然比較看重眼前的好處。

關鍵字

洞朗 一帶一路 戰略 三戰 軍事威懾

並列摘要


1.India-China border disputes in a high attitude. It seems to be war. However, Indian army disengaged from Doklam a week before the BRICS Summit in Xiamen and ended an unprecedented 72 days standoff event so as to avoid a crisis of the 2nd Sino-India war. For gathering maximum interests, both sides took dominance strategies during Doklam standoff. 2.Indian strategic layouts: (1)joint USA, Japan, Australia, and Vietnam; (2)strive for Bangladesh, Burma, Sri Lanka, Mongolia, and pressure to Nepal and Bhutan; (3)strength en army to borders as ready to fight; and (4)media report strong combat capability of the Indian army. 3.Chinese strategic layouts: (1)dispatching army to Tibet plateau and Southern Xinjiang; (2)ongoing large military exercises; (3)making diplomatic united front; and (4)joint media, psychological, and legal warfare. 4.Sum-up the end of border disputes, China and India are comparable in fluence and power, equal in games, and great points in their wisdom. The former is more concerned with far-reaching strategic interests, and the latter would apparently prefer to advantages in hand.

延伸閱讀