以模擬技術和統計方法建構專案排程之可靠度

Construction the Reliability of Project Scheduling Using Simulation and Statistical Methods

蔣安國(An-Kuo Chiang) ； 蔣安仁(An-Jen Chiang) ； 丁敬哲(Jing-Zhe Ding) ； 鍾健平(Chien-Ping Chung)

《管理科學研究》 2005特刊 (2005/12) Pp. 119-130

https://doi.org/10.6873/MSR.200512/SP.0012

摘要

本研究提出結合計劃評核術（Program Evaluation and Review Technique）和反應曲面法（Response surface methodology）來解決專案排程問題。首先以模擬技術和實驗設計作為開發一個可趕工隨機網路的問題，並建構專案排程之可靠度的最佳化模式，透過反應曲面法（Response surface methodology），求解專案排程，並計算出各個作業工期，且滿足可靠度的最佳排程方案，提供排程規劃的一個建議解，且經由實例驗證後，證明在可靠度應用在本研究中，可以在較短的時間內，有效地建立完工工期可靠度模式，求得近似最佳解。

關鍵字

專案排程 ； 模擬 ； 可靠度 ； 反應曲面法

並列摘要

In this study, it will combine PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and RSM (Response surface methodology) to solve related problems. At first, it uses simulation techniques and design of experiment (DOE) to solve the project scheduling in developing a rationale for crashing stochastic networks and also develop a reliability of scheduling optimization models. Simulation techniques are useful for analyzing stochastic effects with response surface methodology to study the tradeoffs among time and reliability. Then, to determine the appropriate activities for crashing, including reliability which is needed to obtain optimal solutions. Finally, the results show that reliability can be integrated with simulation techniques and provide an efficient and practical means of optimal project schedules.

並列關鍵字

Project scheduling ； Simulation ； Reliability ； Response surface methodology